January 6, 2004 LET THE GAMES BEGIN! By 4:00 p.m. last Friday, candidates wanting to seek office in Ohio this year were required to file declarations of candidacy – the first key deadline of the 2004 election year. A total of 270 candidates filed to run for the Ohio General Assembly, 58 for U.S. Congress, eight for Ohio Supreme Court, and 49 for Ohio Courts of Appeals. Attached are three documents listing the names and addresses of all the candidates that filed petitions to run for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, Ohio Senate, Ohio House, Ohio Supreme Court, and Ohio Courts of Appeals. County Boards of Elections are currently working to certify the validity and sufficiency of the petitions each of these candidates filed, a task which they are required to complete by this coming Friday, January 9. We’ll let you know in the next issue of The Political Edge which candidates are disqualified and which candidates choose to withdraw. The deadline by which a candidate may withdraw is next Monday, January 12. We’ll preview each of the contested primaries in upcoming issues of The Political Edge, but here are brief overviews of last week’s filings. Ohio General Assembly As it stands right now, there will be contested primaries in 26 of the 115 Ohio General Assembly districts up this year. In four districts, both parties have primary races. As is typical, most of these contested primaries will occur in districts where the incumbent is not running for re-election. However, an unusually high number of incumbents also face primary opposition in 2004. Two sitting senators and 14 current representatives will be forced to defend their seats against intra-party opposition. Not surprisingly, given the fallout from last year’s budget battle and the one-cent sales tax increase it contained, many of the incumbent candidates – especially on the Republican side – that find themselves with primary opposition supported the budget and corresponding tax increase. Most of the challengers kept their intentions quiet until the last minute in an effort to surprise their opponents, so it’s too early to assess the credibility and potential strength of each challenger. However, the short primary campaign – there are already only 56 days left until the March 2 election – and the financial resources available to the incumbents means the odds any of these challengers have of actually knocking off an incumbent are probably long. Frustration over taxes may be motivating many challengers, but it appears that a few may also be motivated by resentment. The primary challengers to all three appointed incumbents, Sen. Kim Zurz (D-Green) and Reps. Tim DeGeeter (D-Parma) and Earl Martin (R-Avon Lake), are candidates that applied for but were passed over when the respective caucuses selected the current incumbents to fill vacancies. While 14 incumbents face a contest on March 2, a dozen others saw no candidates file to run against them. In such instances, the parties typically seek candidates to run in such districts as write-in candidates; the deadline for write-in candidates to file declarations of intent to run is next Monday, January 12. One term-limited state senator, Lou Blessing (R-Cincinnati), hopes to follow in the footsteps of former Senate colleagues Merle Kearns, Bob Latta, and Scott Oelslager by running for the House. If he’s successful, he would be the first person in the term-limits era to go from the House, to the Senate, and then back to the House. U.S. Congress Will the Republicans be able to hold onto or expand their slim majorities in the U.S. House and Senate? Or will Democrats be able to recapture or at least winnow down their deficits in either body? Whatever the answer to these questions, it doesn’t appear as if Ohio will play a significant role in determining either. Status quo is likely to be the operative term for Ohio’s 2004 congressional elections. Both Sen. George Voinovich (R) and his likely General Election opponent, state Sen. Eric Fingerhut (D), find themselves with primary opposition, but it’s opposition that can best be characterized as a nuisance, not a threat. And while it’s still early, a fall Voinovich-Fingerhut battle isn’t mentioned when pundits discuss the year’s pivotal, competitive Senate campaigns. On the House side, 2004 marks a year when Ohio may not have a single truly competitive contest. All 18 incumbents are running for re-election, and only one, Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo), has close to a top-tier challenger. Kaptur’s challenger is Lucas County Auditor Larry Kaczala (R-Toledo), a popular, veteran votegetter in Lucas County. However, given that Kaptur is also from Lucas County, Kaczala isn’t well known in the other three counties in the district, the district leans Democrat, and that her lowest re-election percentage in the last decade is 74%, Kaptur is the clear favorite. Four of the other 17 incumbents face token primary opposition. One, Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D-Cleveland), is unopposed entirely in her bid for a fourth term. Ohio Supreme Court Though there are four seats up in 2004 and their importance remains critical for Ohio businesses, the year’s Supreme Court campaigns aren’t likely to be as prominent as they have been in recent years. In the only primary contest, Cuyahoga County Common Pleas Judge Nancy Fuerst and 5th District Court of Appeals Judge Scott Gwin will square off in the Democratic primary. The winner will run against Republican-endorsed candidate Judy Lanzinger, currently a judge on the 6th district Court of Appeals, for the sole open seat on the ballot in 2004. Justice Francis Sweeney is retiring. This open seat race will likely be the year’s most competitive contest. For the other three seats, Justice Paul Pfeifer is running unopposed for a third term, Chief Justice Thomas Moyer is opposed by Cleveland Municipal Court Judge C. Ellen Connally, and appointed Justice Terrence O’Donnell will face a challenge from 11th District Court of Appeals Judge C. William O’Neill. Ohio Courts of Appeals A total of 26 Courts of Appeals seats are on the ballot across the state in 2004, more than one-third of the 68 judges that comprise Ohio’s 12 Courts of Appeals districts. 16 judges are running for re-election and there are ten open-seat contests. Of those running for re-election, 12 are assured of winning another term because they have no opposition. The other four, all Republicans, face no primary challengers but do have Democrat General Election opponents. For a complete listing of candidates click here.