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THE
PERILS OF RELYING TOO MUCH ON FIRST TIME VOTERS
Undoubtedly, readers of The Political Edge have had many opportunities
during the last week to hear late-night talk show hosts and radio personalities
take apart Gov. Howard Dean for his not-very-presidential concession
speech delivered in Iowa on Monday night. Dean’s occasionally erratic
behavior has become newsworthy in its own right, and it has overshadowed
perhaps a more glaring strategic flaw in the Dean campaign machinery.
In a National Public Radio interview Monday night, Dean campaign manager
Joe Trippi expressed disappointment in their get-out-the-vote mechanism,
saying the campaign believed their slide in the polls would be offset
by their ability to deliver first-time voters to participate in the
Iowa caucuses. While there is no doubt that the Dean campaign has set
a new benchmark for use of the Internet – both in fundraising and
volunteer recruitment – it is amazing to hear a political operative
betting the farm on first-time voter turnout.
The term “first-time voter” leads us by inference to the reasons
they haven’t voted before, and from a campaign perspective, none
of them are good. Some possibilities include: They just turned 18 (a
group with universally rotten turnout); they don’t have a real
interest in public affairs; or they’re disillusioned by politics.
In the case of these new voters, they have been activated by a new candidate,
or a new contact strategy, or a new issue, and they may quickly abandon
their candidate when attack politics enter the fray. Since Howard Dean
and Dick Gephardt spent the last two weeks before the Iowa caucuses
blasting one another, it would not be surprising to see these voters
defect, or become disillusioned by the process.
Recent history has a few good examples of candidates who energized a
significant segment of new voters. Usually, these voters were either
to the left or right ends of the political spectrum. George McGovern
(and Howard Dean) energized anti-war voters to get involved in the process.
Barry Goldwater offered a conservative alternative, as did Ronald Reagan
in 1976. Each of these candidacies brought new activists to the parties,
and in the cases of Goldwater and Reagan, their adherents eventually
grew to dominate the party. In the campaigns of 1964, 1972, and 1976,
each of these transformational candidates was soundly defeated: Goldwater
and McGovern in the general election, Reagan in the primaries.
The Dean campaign is still sitting on a sizeable pile of cash and excellent
grassroots tools. Unfortunately for them, the per-voter cost of running
an operation that identifies many new voters is far higher than a campaign
based on turning out party regulars. The Dean volunteers may turn out
to be the next generation of activists in the Democratic Party, but
by then it will be too late for Howard Dean.
SORRY, YER OUT!
Of the roughly 500 candidates that filed to run this year for the U.S.
Congress, the Ohio General Assembly, and the Ohio Supreme Court or Courts
of Appeals, several will no longer appear on the March 2 primary ballot.
State law requires that the petitions filed by each of these candidates
be certified by the county boards of elections. In order to certify
a candidate to the ballot, the board must confirm that the candidate
submitted a sufficient number of valid signatures of voters of the same
political party as the candidate who are registered to vote within the
district the candidate is seeking to represent. The boards of elections
had one week from the Jan. 2 filing deadline to complete this task.
This year, a total of ten candidates were disqualified for failing to
satisfy one or more of these requirements.
Six of these candidates – along with one other who did not file
his declaration of candidacy and petitions by the Jan. 2 deadline –
subsequently filed declarations of intent to run as write-in candidates
in the primary and thus still secure a spot on the General Election
ballot. In addition, three candidates withdrew after filing.
P.a.C.E. staff gathered all of this information from another round of
calls to boards of elections across the state, and you can get filing
lists posted on the Ohio Chamber of Commerce website.
Below is a summary of the changes in candidate filing status that have
occurred:
U.S. House District 9 – Luis Thomas Jacob Leal (R-Toledo) was disqualified.
U.S. House District 10 – Dan Brady (D-Cleveland) withdrew his candidacy.
Ohio Senate District 24 – Janet A. Saringer (D-N. Olmsted) withdrew
her candidacy.
Ohio House District 5 – Kelley Handwork (D-Canal Winchester) was
disqualified; subsequently declared intent to run as a write-in.
Ohio House District 18 – Bobby Bland (D-Strongsville) was disqualified;
subsequently declared intent to run as a write-in.
Ohio House District 19 – Antoine Wright (D-Canal Winchester) was
disqualified.
Ohio House District 23 – Elizabeth Hertenstein (D-Hilliard) was
disqualified; subsequently declared intent to run as a write-in.
Ohio House District 24 – Pat Byrne (D-Columbus) was disqualified;
subsequently declared intent to run as a write-in.
Ohio House District 35 – Brian Miller (D-Loveland) declared intent
to run as a write-in.
Ohio House District 43– Jane Tabor-Grimm (D-Tallmadge) was disqualified;
subsequently declared intent to run as a write-in.
Ohio House District 44 – Tim Mishler (R-Akron) was disqualified.
Ohio House District 48 – Melinda M. Jenson (R-Toledo) was disqualified.
Ohio House District 54 – Joseph Lee Statzer (R-Fairfield) withdrew
his candidacy.
Ohio House District 74 – William Flanary (D-Defiance) was disqualified;
subsequently declared intent to run as a write-in.
FROM AROUND THE NATION
From January 8-10, state business political action leaders from around
the country gathered for the annual United for State Action Roundtable
meeting in Austin, Texas. This meeting facilitates the sharing of effective
strategies to use in supporting pro-business political candidates, enables
states to anticipate opposition activity, and allows states to get a
perspective of just how good – or bad – their political environment
could be. Representatives of business organizations from nearly 20 states
were present this year.
Here are few common threads that emerged from reports given in Austin:
Where Has Labor Gone? In virtually every state, personal injury
attorneys have emerged as the primary threat to the business community,
both legislatively and politically. They’re recruiting candidates,
funding campaigns, and organizing opposition to tort reform. Not a single
state mentioned organized labor as being a significant force.
Democrat Governors Hold the Line on Taxes – In 2002, many states,
especially in the Midwest, elected Democrat governors after long periods
of Republican control. And most of these states went through a budget
process last year – as we did here in Ohio – where there were
initially large holes that needed to be plugged between revenue and
expenses. Interestingly, virtually all of the new Democrat governors
refused to consider raising taxes as a solution and, instead, held the
line on or cut spending in order to balance their budgets.
Often We Overlap, But… Though it is generally true outside
the south that support for the business agenda is more widespread and
consistent amongst Republican legislators than it is among Democrats,
there is an emerging recognition that GOP victories at the ballot don’t
necessarily equate to pro-business victories in the policy arena. In
many states, this is leading to the realization that involvement in
partisan primaries is increasingly necessary and that blind support
of incumbent Republicans – simply because they’re incumbent
Republicans – is increasingly imprudent.
DEMOCRATS ENDORSE GWIN OVER FUERST
In the year’s only contested Ohio Supreme Court primary, the Ohio
Democratic Party has chosen sides. This week the party endorsed Court
of Appeals Judge Scott Gwin over Cuyahoga County Common Pleas Judge
Nancy Fuerst. Both filed to run for the lone open seat on the ballot
this fall, the seat currently held by Justice Francis Sweeney. The winner
will face Republican Court of Appeals Judge Judith Ann Lanzinger.
The contested primary underscores the challenges the state party most
overcome in its bid to once again be a player in statewide elections.
The party didn’t have the muscle to get Fuerst to step aside and
instead challenge Chief Justice Thomas Moyer, which it apparently tried
to do. Some party insiders felt that not only would a primary contest
be costly and potentially have a negative impact on the eventual winner,
but that the party’s best overall slate would have been to have
Fuerst running against Moyer.
Gwin is currently serving his third-term on the 5th district appeals
court. The 5th district includes 15 counties in central and northeastern
Ohio, the largest of which is Stark County. He was in private practice
for eight years before beginning his service in public office when he
was elected law director for the city of Canton in 1985. His biography
lists his “areas of concentration” when in private practice
as “litigation in criminal felony and misdemeanor cases, personal
injury work, domestic relations and probate law.”
As part of the Ohio Chamber’s ongoing efforts to educate the business
community about significant court decisions and their effects on the
economic environment in Ohio, P.a.C.E. completed last year a review
of the decisions of the 5th district. Of the five judges scored in this
review, Gwin’s overall score was the lowest, coming in at just
38%. Click here to see our complete “2003 Business Evaluation of
the Ohio 5th District Court of Appeals.”
He was last on the ballot in 2000, when he ran unopposed. When he last
faced opposition, in 1994, he won with 55% of the vote. He won largely
on the strength of a 50,000 vote margin in Stark County, as he carried
only five of the 15 counties in the district.
A BRIEF LOOK AT CONTESTED CONGRESSIONAL PRIMARIES
U.S. Senate: (Democrats) – State Sen. Eric Fingerhut (D-Cleveland)
has been running for nearly a year and just this week received the endorsement
of the Ohio Democratic Party. A former one-term congressman, Fingerhut
is serving his second term in the Ohio Senate, representing the 25th
Senate district in Cuyahoga County. He is the prohibitive favorite over
Norbert G. Dennerll, Jr. (D-Elyria), a former Cleveland city councilman.
U.S. Senate: (Republicans) – Like he did when he first ran
for the U.S. Senate in 1998, incumbent Sen. George Voinovich (R-Cleveland)
will face token primary opposition this year. He is being challenged
by John Mitchell of Beavercreek, who garnered 8% of the vote in a primary
challenge to Cong. Dave Hobson in 2002 and got 3% of the vote as the
Reform Party’s gubernatorial candidate in 1998.
Congressional District 1: (Democrats) – Greg Harris of Clifton,
executive director of Citizens for Civic Renewal, a non-profit organization
that attempts to give “citizens a more effective voice in decision-making
processes” on the Cincinnati-area’s “most important issues,”
is hoping for another shot at Cong. Steve Chabot (R-Cincinnati). He
lost 65%-35% to Chabot in 2002. To earn a rematch, however, he’ll
have to defeat Richard Lerner of Amberley Village in the Democrat primary.
Congressional District 2: (Democrats) – Perennial candidate
and former Waynesville Mayor Charles Sanders will face Mark Crummie
of Manchester for the right to lose to Cong. Rob Portman (R-Terrace
Park). Sanders was Portman’s General Election opponent in 1998,
2000, and 2002, and his best showing was the 26% he got in ’02.
Crummie is a senior instructor in the Department of Social Sciences
at Shawnee State University in Portsmouth.
Congressional District 3: (Republicans) – Timothy Dortsen of
Miamisburg is a big underdog against freshman Cong. Mike Turner (R-Dayton).
Turner captured nearly 80% of the vote in a hotly contested GOP primary
in 2002, and Dorsten is unlikely to do as well. The winner will face
political consultant Louella Jane Mitakides (D-Kettering) in November.
Congressional District 6: (Democrats) – Diane DiCarlo Murphy
(D-Canfield), a Youngstown schools English teacher and voluntary treasurer
of imprisoned former Cong. James Traficant’s legal defense fund,
is running against incumbent Cong. Ted Strickland (D-Lisbon). Strickland,
a potential statewide candidate in 2006, should have little trouble
dispatching Murphy and no Republican filed to challenge him in the fall.
Congressional District 9: (Republicans) – Lucas County Auditor
Larry Kaczala (R-Toledo) is the first serious challenger in years to
incumbent Cong. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo). Kaczala won’t have much
trouble getting past Kaptur’s 1998 and 2002 General Election opponent
Ed Emery (R-Sylvania) in the GOP primary.
Congressional District 10: (Democrats) – With the withdrawal
of state Sen. Dan Brady (D-Cleveland) from the race, George Pulling
of Burton is the only primary opposition for incumbent and presidential
aspirant Cong. Dennis Kucinich (D-Cleveland).
Congressional District 10: (Republicans) – Republicans must
think that Kucinich’s presidential candidacy – if unsuccessful
– will hurt him in his bid for re-election to Congress, even though
he was re-elected in 2002 with 74% of the vote. How else to explain
the fact that five Republicans are seeking the right to challenge Kucinich
in the General Election? They are mortgage broker Bruce Cobbledick of
Bay Village, realtor and Afghan war veteran Ed Herman and former LTV
Steel worker Bill Smith, Jr., both of Lakewood, Peter Smith of Fairview
Park, and Matt Webb of Middleburg Heights. Herman has received the Cuyahoga
County Republican Party’s endorsement.
Congressional District 13: (Republicans) – Joe Ortega of
Strongsville will face Robert Lucas of Akron. The winner meets Cong.
Sherrod Brown (D-Lorain).
Congressional District 14: (Democrats) – Term-limited state
Rep. Ed Jerse (D-Euclid) heads a field of five Democrats vying for the
right to challenge incumbent Cong. Steve LaTourette (R-Madison). Dale
Blanchard is back for another try after losing to LaTourette in each
of the previous two elections, getting 32% of the vote in 2000 and just
28% two years ago. The others are Chagrin Falls business owner Herb
Hammer, Capri Cafaro of Hubbard – the daughter of a Youngstown
businessman who admitted to bribing former Cong. James Traficant –
and attorney Charles Wolfe of Brookfield.
Congressional District 15: (Democrats) – Three Democrats
are running for the unenviable chance to take on House Republican Conference
Chairwoman Deborah Pryce (R-Columbus). Columbus engineering technician
Mark Brown is seeking a third shot at Pryce, having already lost to
her in 1998 and 2002. He’ll first have to get by restaurant owner
Ignacio Garcia and Wilson Raymond Mills, both of Columbus.
Congressional District 15: (Republicans) – Electronics company
owner Charlie Morrison (R-London) again provides token opposition for
Pryce in the GOP primary. She turned away Morrison’s 2002 challenge
78%-22%. Expect a similar result in March.
Congressional District 18: (Democrats) – Paul Richards of Glouster
and Brian Thomas of Scio will face each other in the Democratic primary.
Whichever candidate wins will have an uphill race against Cong. Bob
Ney (R-St. Clairsville).
A BRIEF LOOK AT CONTESTED OHIO SENATE PRIMARIES
Senate District 14 (Republicans) – The race between Reps.
Tom Niehaus (R-New Richmond) and Jean Schmidt (R-Loveland) is the marquee
General Assembly primary of 2004. As we wrote in the August 14, 2003
issue of The Political Edge, the outcome could turn on the candidates’
votes on last year’s biennial budget and the sales tax increase
it included – Schmidt voted “yes” and Niehaus “no”
on the budget – and each candidates’ ability to raise enough
money to get their message out. The winner will be a prohibitive favorite
against Democrat Jeannette Schwietering of Cincinnati in November.
Senate District 18 (Democrats) – Though it won’t get
nearly the attention the GOP primary gets, Democrats have a primary
fight in this district, too. Attorney John Hawkins (D-Mentor-on-the-Lake)
and Danielle Deighton (D-Mentor) are fighting to carry the Democratic
banner in the fall. Hawkins was Rep. Jamie Callender’s (R-Willowick)
1998 General Election opponent, losing 57%-43%.
Senate District 18 (Republicans) – Though Rep. Ron Young (R-Painesville)
ultimately decided not to join the fray, the contest between Reps. Callender
and Tim Grendell (R-Chesterland) will still be one of the year’s
most closely watched primaries. Like the 14th Senate district GOP primary,
the outcome here may also turn on the votes of each candidate on the
budget. Callender voted for the bill while Grendell voted against it.
Because of this vote and other reasons (see the December 11, 2003 Political
Edge for a detailed preview of this contest), Grendell may be the favorite.
Senate District 24 (Republicans) – Sen. Bob Spada (R-N. Royalton)
is the lone incumbent Republican senator facing primary opposition.
His challenger is Don Sopka, a Broadview Heights councilman. Sopka lost
a GOP primary contest in the 22nd Senate district in 2000 to Sen. Ron
Amstutz (R-Wooster), 64%-36%. However, he did carry the Cuyahoga County
portion of the 22nd in that race, and the entire 24th is within Cuyahoga.
The winner – likely Spada – will meet Westlake Democrat Robert
Mattius in the General Election.
Senate District 28 (Democrats) – Former Rep. Tom Seese (D-Akron),
who lost his seat in the House to former Rep. Twyla Roman (R-Akron)
in 1994 and is now the head of the Portage-Summit UAW CAP council, is
looking to return to Columbus. To do so, he’ll have to defeat appointed
Sen. Kim Zurz (D-Green). Zurz was chosen by the Senate Democratic Caucus
over Seese and another applicant to replace former Sen. Leigh Herington
(D-Kent) in August. The Seese-Zurz victor will be a heavy favoite in
Novmeber over GOP candidate Kevin Fowler of Ravenna.
Senate District 30 (Democrats) – We previewed this primary
battle in the August 28, 2003 issue of The Political Edge, stating that
term-limited Rep. Charlie Wilson (D-St. Clairsville) is a slight favorite
over former Rep. Jerry Krupinski (D-Steubenville). We attributed Wilson’s
frontrunner status to his early start – he’s essentially been
campaigning for this seat for more than a year – and the probability
that he’ll significantly outraise Krupinski. Nothing has happened
since to cause us to change our opinion. Awaiting the winner is attorney
Lawrence Stacey, II (R-Columbiana).
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