|
CALLENDER
V. GRENDELL, OR NOT?
In our “Brief Look at Contested Ohio Senate Primaries” in
the last issue of The Political Edge, we characterized the Senate District
18 contest between Reps. Jamie Callender (R-Willowick) and Tim Grendell
(R-Chesterland) as “one of the year’s most closely watched
primaries.” Developments over the course of the last two weeks
have now left us wondering whether or not there will even be a primary.
Lake County Common Pleas Court Judge Martin O. Parks resigned last week,
creating a vacancy on the Common Pleas bench. Gov. Bob Taft will appoint
Parks’ successor. Immediately after Parks’ announcement, speculation
centered on Callender, an attorney, as the leading candidate to replace
him.
In order to fill a judicial vacancy, Gov. Taft typically solicits a
list of names from the county Republican party for consideration. These
individuals will then complete a questionnaire and potentially interview
with the Governor’s legal staff. The legal staff then makes a recommendation
to the Governor, who then sometimes wants a private interview before
making a final decision. The entire process is normally completed in
about a month.
Late last week, the Lake County Republican Party executive committee
forwarded five names, including Callender’s, to the Governor for
his consideration. However, it is also rumored that some key elected
officials in Lake County have asked the Governor not to appoint Callender.
In any event, Callender’s interest in the appointment and the mere
speculation he may get it will complicate his ability to run an effective
Senate campaign. Questions about his desire for and commitment to being
in the Senate surely will arise in some voter’s minds. And, if
the Governor’s process takes about a month, that means a decision
likely isn’t forthcoming until right around the time of the March
2 primary.
It’s too late for Callender to withdraw from the race, so he’ll
be on the ballot no matter what. Whether or not he’ll be Judge
Callender, GOP Senate candidate Callender, or simply term-limited Rep.
Callender after the primary remains to be seen.
WHITHER ORGANIZED LABOR?
Everyone has heard about the near-legendary effectiveness of organized
labor’s ability to turn out the vote for Democratic candidates.
This reputation has resulted in Republican candidates, especially in
states like Ohio with disproportionately unionized workforces, frequently
bending over backwards not to antagonize labor – even in heavily
Republican districts. It has also led to suggestions by top Republican
officeholders in Ohio and other states that businesses are currently
deficient for not doing enough to counter organized labor’s efforts
to drive turnout.
To their credit, unions have steadily increased their percentage of
the voting population in the past decade. In the 2000 presidential election,
26% of all voters nationwide were either union members or resided in
a household containing a union member – up from 19% in 1992. In
Ohio, the numbers went from 25% in 1992 to 36% in 2000.
But are there chinks in organized labor’s armor?
The percentage of the Ohio workforce that is unionized continues to
decline. The U.S. Dept. of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics released
its annual “Union Members Summary” in January, and the number
of Ohioans belonging to a union fell by 8,000 to a total of 850,000
in 2003. This represents just 16.7% of the workforce, and the union
membership rate has steadily declined in Ohio since the late 1970’s.
Take a look, too, at what happened in the recent Iowa Democrat presidential
caucuses and the California gubernatorial recall.
In Iowa last month, U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt had more labor endorsements
– Food & Commercial Workers, LIUNA, Teamsters, Steelworkers,
Machinists, 21 in all – than any other candidate. Vermont Gov.
Howard Dean had support from two of the largest unions – AFSCME
and SEIU. It was touted as a battle between public sector unions and
“old” labor, i.e. the trade unions.
Neither won, despite the fact that, reportedly, thousands of union volunteers
worked Iowa on behalf of Dean or Gephardt. Dean and Gephardt finished
third and fourth, respectively, neither benefiting from labor’s
support.
In California, major labor unions provided nearly unanimous opposition
to last year’s recall of former Gov. Gray Davis, as well as support
for candidates other than Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger. Yet exit
polls show nearly half of the union members who voted voted to recall
Davis, and Schwarzenegger received more union votes than any other candidate.
While the failures of organized labor in Iowa and California don’t
necessarily portend similar troubles in Ohio or at the national level,
they, at the very least, call into question the ability of labor bosses
to control how their members vote. They also mean that labor will have
to deliver in 2004, or its political clout may be heading in the same
direction as its membership numbers.
A BRIEF LOOK AT CONTESTED OHIO HOUSE PRIMARIES
House District 2 (Democrats) – William Baker of Delaware meets
realtor Catherine Burner of Westerville. The winner will have a tough
time defeating incumbent Rep. Jon Peterson (R-Delaware) in a district
that ordinarily votes Republican nearly 70% of the time.
House District 5 (Republicans) – The ongoing feud within the Fairfield
County Republican Party has manifested itself in this year’s House
primary. UPS driver Bradley Sodders of Baltimore is challenging incumbent
Rep. Tim Schaffer (R-Lancaster), who is seeking a third term. Sodders
is an ally of current county party Chair Brian Fox, who lost to Schaffer
in the 2000 GOP primary. Schaffer is a leader in an effort currently
underway to oust Fox as party chair. Sodders finished third in a three-way
race for two spots on the Liberty Union-Thurston school board in 2003,
and is not likely to find greater success against Schaffer.
House District 7 (Democrats) – Incumbent Rep. Ed Jerse (D-Euclid)
is term-limited, and there are two Democrats seeking to replace him.
A third, Kevin Potter of Cleveland, dropped out. The Cuyahoga County
Democratic Party has endorsed Kenny Yuko of Richmond Heights, an organizer
for Laborers Union Local 860. Former Euclid school board member Kent
Smith, who has received the Cleveland Plain Dealer endorsement, is the
other candidate. Expect a close contest, with the slight edge to Smith.
House District 7 (Republicans) – The GOP has a primary in this
district, too, though whoever wins the Democratic primary will be the
prohibitive favorite against either Steve Pressman of South Euclid or
Beverly Valencic of Euclid. Pressman, an industrial hygienist, ran against
Jerse in ’02, losing 79%-21%. Valencic is a Cleveland school administrator.
House District 9 (Democrats) – After taking an election cycle off,
former Cleveland Heights-University Heights school board member Eric
Silverman is back for another shot at Rep. Claudette Woodard (D-Cleveland
Heights). He finished second to Woodard when the seat was open in 2000.
His chances of defeating her haven’t since improved.
House District 11 (Democrats) – Another year, another contested
primary for Rep. Annie Key (D-Cleveland), who’s making it her custom
to ward off primary challengers. She captured the seat by winning a
five-way primary in 2000, and had an opponent two years ago, as well.
This time around, she has two challengers. T.J. Dow of Cleveland –
who was Key’s ’02 primary opponent, losing 68%-32% –
is trying again, and is joined by former Kucinich for President staffer
Trevor Elkins of Newburg Heights. Key is the favorite to win a third
term, but it won’t be easy.
House District 15 (Democrats) – Newly appointed Rep. Timothy DeGeeter
(D-Parma), a former Parma councilman, will have to work to earn a full
term. He has primary opposition in the person of former Rep. Mickey
Mottl of Parma. Mottl, now a law clerk, held the seat from 1997-1998,
but was never elected. He was appointed in early 1997 to fill the remainder
of the term to which his father was elected, and was then beaten by
Dean DePiero in the 1998 Democratic primary. Though the Mottl name is
well-known, DeGeeter, an attorney who is a DePiero ally, should prevail.
House District 15 (Republicans) – Two Republicans, Tim Corrigan
of Middleburg Heights and Jay Parma of Brooklyn, will square off for
the right to meet the DeGeeter-Mottl winner. Corrigan is a veteran firefighter
while Parma is a non-attorney who works for a large law firm. Parma
is also a former member of the Brooklyn school board. Corrigan is a
powerful ballot name in Cuyahoga County and, on the basis of his name
alone, is the favorite.
House District 17 (Democrats) – Vying for the right to oppose Rep.
Jim Trakas (R-Independence) in November are Mike Cook of Solon, a spokesman
for the Red Cross of Northern Ohio and former General Assembly staffer,
and David Pomerantz, a personal injury attorney. Both are from Solon,
and Pomerantz has the endorsement of the Cuyahoga County Democratic
Party.
House District 20 (Republicans) – Attempting to capitalize on the
familiarity of his namesake, James Rhodes Coyne of Columbus is opposing
Rep. Jim McGregor (R-Gahanna). It won't be enough.
House District 26 (Democrats) – Mike Mitchell of Columbus is running
an uphill battle against freshman Rep. Larry Price (D-Columbus).
House District 29 (Republicans) – After failing to obtain an appointment
to some other position, term-limited Sen. Lou Blessing (R-Cincinnati)
decided at the last minute to run for the House. Colerain Township Trustee
Keith Corman was the favorite until Blessing got in the race. John Waksmundski,
the Springfield Township Clerk, is also in the race. The winner hopes
to succeed term-limited Rep. Patricia Clancy in this heavily Republican
district.
House District 34 (Republicans) – Frustration by some with Rep.
Tom Brinkman’s (R-Cincinnati) take-no-prisoners approach has resulted
in Brinkman receiving a primary challenge this year. He’ll face
attorney Greg Delev, who has the backing of several prominent Hamilton
County Republican elected officials. Despite this support, Delev will
have a hard time knocking off Brinkman.
House District 41 (Democrats) – Former Akron Public Schools Superintendent
Brian Williams is the favorite in a three-way Democratic primary. His
opponents are Gregg Cramer of Fairlawn and Clark Hosick of Akron. Hosick
is the former executive director of the North American Indian Cultural
Center and an Ohio Bicentennial Commission member. The winner will face
Republican Marilyn Slaby, who will likely be the appointed incumbent
before November. Current Rep. Bryan Williams (R-Akron), who is term-limited,
is in line to become the next director of the Summit County Board of
Elections and should soon be leaving Columbus.
House District 52 (Democrats) – Rep. Mary Cirelli (D-Canton) will
square off against three opponents who want her job in this heavily
Democratic district. Bill Healy, son of the former state representative
of the same name, is the strongest of the three, though he just lost
a race for mayor of Canton last November. The others are former Canton
Councilman Craig Massey and political activist Thomas Robinson.
House District 56 (Democrats) – He was unsuccessful in his bid
for mayor of Lorain last year, but Rep. Joe Koziura (D-Lorain) shouldn’t
have any trouble winning re-election to the House, despite two primary
challengers. Lorain Councilwoman Kathy Tavenner and Justin Hill, Koziura’s
’02 primary opponent, are attempting to deny Koziura a second full
term.
House District 57 (Democrats) – Former North Ridgeville Mayor Deanna
Hill, who represents one of the Democrat’s best chances to win
a GOP-held seat this year, must first get past flight instructor Eric
Schneider of Elyria in the primary.
House District 57 (Republicans) – Martha Wise of Avon, a 24-year
member of the state school board, has the best chance of any challenger
seeking to knock off an incumbent legislator this March. Her target
is appointed Rep. Earl Martin (R-Avon Lake), who was chosen last spring
to succeed former Rep. Jeff Manning. Wise was passed over in favor of
Martin by the House Republican caucus, and now may be looking for payback.
The name recognition Wise has from her tenure on the school board, coupled
with Martin’s lack of any broad political base, probably means
Martin will have to come from behind in order to have a shot in November
to win a full term. With the full support of the caucus, he may be able
to do it.
House District 60 (Democrats) – Even though he’s running for
what would be his fourth and final term, his fellow Democrats still
aren’t willing to give Rep. Sylvester Patton (D-Youngstown) a free
pass. He’ll face two of the candidates he has already vanquished
in previous years. One of his 1998 opponents, Michael O’Hara of
Youngstown, and one of his 2002 opponents, former Youngstown Councilman
Jerome McNally, are back for another shot. Expect Patton to prevail
again.
House District 61 (Republicans) – Hoping to get a second chance
at beating Rep. John Boccieri (D-New Middletown) is Randy Pope (R-Alliance).
Pope, who lost to Boccieri 61%-39% two years ago, must first fend off
political newcomer Jonathan Swift of Alliance. Either candidate will
be the underdog against Boccieri, a captain in the Air Force Reserve
who has been called up to active duty.
House District 62 (Republicans) – Christopher Galloway of Concord
and Greg Schmidt of Willoughby are competing for the GOP nomination
in the district currently held by Rep. Jamie Callender (R-Willowick).
Galloway, who has twice been elected to the GOP State Central Committee,
may be a slight favorite over Schmidt, an HR consultant. The winner
will face Willowick Mayor Lorraine Fende in the General Election in
this swing district.
House District 64 (Democrats) – Rep. Dan Sferra (D-Warren) is facing
a challenge from Warren resident Randall Pigott. Sferra is a strong
favorite for a third term.
House District 66 (Republicans) – Voters in Clermont County have
their work cut out for them this March. In addition to choosing between
Reps. Tom Niehaus (R-New Richmond) and Jean Schmidt (R-Loveland) to
succeed Sen. Doug White (R-Manchester), they must also choose between
five candidates seeking to replace Schmidt in the House. The favorite
is Miami Township Trustee Joe Uecker (R-Loveland), who recently captured
the endorsement of the Clermont County Republican Party. Technical writer
Carl Dorsch and retired CPA Don Donohoo of Loveland provide the strongest
opposition. Pastor Mark Daniels of Batavia and mortgage loan officer
Jeff Hardin of Milford round out the field.
House District 71 (Republicans) – Johnstown Councilman Jeff Furr
is running to deny Rep. David Evans (R-Newark) a fourth term. Though
Evans may be vulnerable, Furr isn’t likely to be able to capitalize.
House District 84 (Democrats) – Madison County Democrat Party Chairman
Kevin Stockham of Plain City and William Eby both would like a shot
at incumbent Rep. Chris Widener (R-Springfield). Eby, the husband of
Widener’s 2002 General Election opponent, lost a race for Pleasant
Township trustee in 2003.
House District 84 (Republicans) – Rep. Chris Widener (R-Springfield)
should have little difficulty dispatching political novice Bob Rogers,
an electrician.
House District 88 (Republicans) – Is it all in a name? We may find
out in this three-way GOP primary, where incumbent Rep. Tom Niehaus
(R-New Richmond) is not seeking re-election. Two candidates with surnames
familiar to some of the voters of Brown and Clermont Counties, Curt
Carl Hartman and Harry Cooper Snyder, will be on the ballot. Snyder,
the son of former Sen. Cooper Snyder, is making his first run for office.
Hartman is a Pierce Township Trustee whose father is the former Clermont
County Engineer and whose mother is a member of the West Clermont school
board. Snyder is getting help from key GOP leaders in Columbus and may
have a slight edge. Attorney Danny Bubp, a Brown County native and former
Adams County Common Pleas Court judge who is the founder of the “Adams
County for the 10 Commandments” organization, cannot be ruled out.
House District 91 (Republicans) – Four candidates are vying for
the GOP nomination in the district currently held by Speaker of the
House Larry Householder (R-Glenford). The favorites are former Rep.
Ron Hood (R-Ashville) and former Hocking County Commissioner Fred Hawk
of Logan. Hood, who represented a Mahoning Valley district for two terms
from 1997-2000, moved into this district last year and will have his
usual strong support from conservative grassroots organizations. Hawk,
Householder’s former campaign treasurer, is receiving backing and
assistance from GOP leaders in Columbus. Dale Dickson of New Lexington,
superintendent of the Perry-Hocking Educational Service Center, and
Sereana Dresbach of Circleville, a professor at Ohio State, are also
running.
House District 96 (Democrats) – Rep. Charlie Wilson (D-St. Clairsville)
is term-limited, and there are two Democrats competing for the chance
to succeed him. They are Barb Pincola of Cadiz, whose husband runs the
Harrison County Public Defender’s office, and Allan Sayre of Dover.
Sayre is a real estate appraiser making his first run for public office
and is the clear frontrunner in this race. The winner faces Republican
Tom Gerber of New Philadelphia in November in what should be a highly
competitive General Election.
House District 98 (Republicans) – Matt Dolan of Novelty, an attorney
and son of the owner of the Cleveland Indians, and Chardon Township
Trustee Don Welker are the two GOP candidates. The incumbent is Rep.
Tim Grendell (R-Chesterland), who is running for the Senate. Dolan ran
as a Democrat against Grendell’s wife, former Rep. Diane Grendell,
in the 1994 General Election.
|
