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FAST
APPROACHING FILING DEADLINE
FOSTERS FLURRY OF CANDIDATE ACTION
In just the last month we’ve seen: Lieutenant Governor candidate
Phil Heimlich give up his spot on Jim Petro’s gubernatorial ticket,
Auditor Betty Montgomery drop out of the GOP gubernatorial primary and
get into the Attorney General’s race, Franklin County Prosecutor
Ron O’Brien end his campaign for Attorney General, Rep. Barbara
Sykes (D-Akron) declare her candidacy for Auditor, three gubernatorial
candidates announce their running mates, and Secretary of State Ken
Blackwell and Attorney General Petro rebuff efforts by Republican leaders
to get the two to form a gubernatorial team and avert a head-to-head
showdown in the May primary.
And there’s still a week to go until the filing deadline.
With all this shuffling, you need a scorecard to keep up! Don’t
worry, though, we’ve got one for you. Here’s the current picture:
| GOVERNOR |
| Democrats |
Republicans |
•
Eric Fingerhut/?
• Bryan Flannery/ Frank Stams
• Ted Strickland/ Lee Fisher |
•
Ken Blackwell/ Tom Raga
• Jim Petro/Joy Padgett |
| ATTORNEY
GENERAL |
| Democrats |
Republicans |
•
Subodh Chandra
• Marc Dann |
•
Tim Grendell
• Betty Montgomery |
| AUDITOR |
| Democrats |
Republicans |
•
John Reardon
• Barbara Sykes |
•
Mary Taylor |
| SECRETARY
OF STATE |
| Democrats |
Republicans |
| •
Jennifer Brunner |
•
Greg Hartmann
• Jim Trakas |
| TREASURER |
| Democrats |
Republicans |
•
Richard Cordray
• Hugh Quill |
•
Jeannette Bradley
• Sandy O’Brien |
In
addition, there is a Green Party candidate, Bob Fitrakis, and a Libertarian
Party candidate, Bill Peirce, for governor and a Green candidate for
Secretary of State, Tim Kettler.
Despite the flurry of pre-filing deadline activity, it’s certainly
not beyond the realm of possibility that more adjustments to the slate
of primary candidates could yet occur. One big question still to be
answered is: who will Fingerhut tab as his running mate?
Beyond that, any further changes appear most likely to occur on the
GOP side. Ohio Republican Party Chairman Bob Bennett is well-known for
his aversion to contested primaries and the party currently has multiple
candidates running for four of the five statewide offices. It appears
as if Bennett will be unsuccessful in averting a Blackwell-Petro face-off,
but can he clear the field in any of the other three races where there
are currently two candidates? In particular, will Grendell soldier on
in the A.G.’s race despite Montgomery’s candidacy? And will
Trakas, facing a fundraising deficit of better than 11-to-1, be encouraged
to step aside in the Secretary of State race?
We’ll know for certain a week from now.
SUPREME
COURT CONTESTS TAKING SHAPE
Somewhat lost amid the recent maneuvering occurring higher up the ticket
– but, as Ohio employers well know, no less significant –
were several developments impacting the 2006 Ohio Supreme Court elections.
Early last month, Justice Alice Resnick announced that she would forego
seeking re-election to a fourth term on the high court. Resnick, who
posted the lowest overall score on the most recent P.a.C.E.
Business Evaluation of the Ohio Supreme Court, gave wanting to spend
more time with her ill husband and the demands of traveling between
Columbus and her home in Toledo as reasons for her decision.
Her departure means that Justice Paul Pfeifer is the only remaining
member of the infamous “Gang of Four” Supreme Court justices
that will remain on the court beginning in 2007. Justices Andy Douglas
and Francis Sweeney, along with Pfeifer and Resnick, comprised a majority
on the court from 1991-2002 and frequently allowed their own political
or policy preferences to guide their judicial decisions.
So far, two Democrats, former Ohio Senate Minority Leader Ben Espy of
Columbus and Cuyahoga County Juvenile Court Judge Peter Sikora, have
announced plans to run for Resnick’s seat. Sikora has run once
previously for the Supreme Court, losing to Douglas in 1996. Speculation
late last year was that state party officials would encourage Cuyahoga
County Common Pleas Judge Nancy Fuerst to run again if Resnick opted
not to try for re-election. Fuerst ran unsuccessfully against Justice
Terrence O’Donnell in 2004.
On the GOP side, 3rd District Court of Appeals Judge Bob Cupp of Lima,
a former state legislator, received the official Ohio Republican Party
endorsement for the Resnick seat. Cupp gained the party’s nod over
four other appeals court judges who sought it: Susan Browne of the 10th
District, Michael Corrigan of the 8th District, Mary DeGenaro of the
7th District, and Stephen Powell of the 12th District. Facing legislative
term limits in 2000, Cupp briefly considered challenging Resnick that
year. After serving as an Allen County Commissioner for two years, he
ran for and won his seat on the appeals court in 2002.
In addition to the race to replace Resnick, O’Donnell is also up
for re-election in 2006. His should be a familiar name to Ohio voters
by now, as this will mark the third time in the past four election cycles
that he has been a Supreme Court candidate. The first time was in 2000,
when he was the GOP candidate against Resnick. After losing that campaign,
he returned to the 8th District Court of Appeals before being chosen
by Gov. Bob Taft to replace Justice Deborah Cook when she was appointed
to the federal judiciary in 2003. O’Donnell subsequently was on
the ballot in 2004 to secure the final two years of Cook’s term.
This year, he’ll be seeking a full six-year term.
His Democrat opponent will be either 11th District Appeals Court Judge
William O’Neill or Montgomery County Common Pleas Judge A.J. Wagner.
An O’Neill win in the primary would set up a rematch of 2004’s
O’Donnell v. O’Neill general election, which O’Donnell
won with over 60% of the vote. Two years ago, O’Neill voluntarily
limited the amount of campaign contributions his campaign would accept
to $10 from individuals and $1,000 from PACs, a decision that meant
his campaign was outspent by the O’Donnell campaign nearly 21-to-1.
This year, O’Neill has pledged not to accept any campaign contributions.
Wagner has been running since last fall and has stated that, “The
court is hearing only one voice, the voice of industry, insurance companies
and hospitals. They’re not hearing from workers, consumers and
injured people.” The former elementary school teacher served ten
years as Montgomery County Auditor before being elected to the common
pleas bench in 2000.
Whatever the outcome of this year’s two Supreme Court contests,
neither partisan control nor a philosophical majority is at stake. Resnick
is the lone Democrat on the court currently and, though judicial activists
dominated the court as recently as 2002, the current makeup reflects
a 5-2 majority that understands and respects the proper role of the
court.
Nonetheless, after working so aggressively in the past three election
cycles to change the Supreme Court, now is not the time for the business
community to walk away. Failing to engage in 2006 could mean that, two
years down the road, philosophical control of the court could once again
hang in the balance.
HERE
TODAY, GONE TOMORROW
In the last issue of The Political
Edge, we wrote about how, with the November election still nearly
a year away, significant turnover in the Ohio House was already assured.
Since then, three more House incumbents have announced plans not to
run for re-election to the House.
One, Rep. Tom Raga (R-Mason), was chosen by Secretary of State Ken Blackwell
earlier this week to be his lieutenant gubernatorial running mate. By
joining the Blackwell ticket, Raga will have to forego running for re-election
to the House seat he has held since 2001 – making his the 27th
House district that will feature an open seat contest in 2006. That’s
by far the most since term limits hit in 2000. By way of comparison,
there were 18 open seats in 2002 and just 11 in 2004.
The district Raga represents includes two-thirds of Warren County, one
of the most Republican counties in Ohio, and is a lock to choose another
Republican to replace Raga.
Of the 27 House seats open this year, 14 are because the incumbent faces
term limits. Ten other representatives, in addition to Raga, could run
for re-election but have instead chosen to seek another office. Two
retiring House members, Reps. Linda Reidelbach (R-Columbus) and Derrick
Seaver (R-Minster), are neither term-limited nor running for something
else, while two others have announced plans to leave the House to run
for the Senate.
Rep. John Boccieri (D-New Middletown), who could serve one additional
term, is one of three Democrats running to replace term-limited Sen.
Bob Hagan (D-Youngstown) in the 33rd Senate district. The other two
candidates are former representative and current Mahoning County Recorder
Ron Gerberry and Rep. Sylvester Patton (D-Youngstown). Patton is also
term-limited. The 33rd includes all of Carroll and Mahoning Counties
and parts of both Stark and Tuscarawas Counties, and the winner of this
three-way primary will be the clear frontrunner in November.
The 61st House district that Boccieri currently represents is a swing
district on paper and a spirited general election race is anticipated.
Rep. Ron Hood (R-Ashville) will give up his seat in the House after
just one term. He joins fellow Rep. Tim Schaffer (R-Lancaster) in the
GOP primary in the 31st Senate district, where incumbent Sen. Jay Hottinger
(R-Newark) is term-limited. The 31st district includes all or part of
five counties and his solidly Republican.
Hood’s district leans Republican, and he won his 2004 race by a
fairly narrow 53%-47% margin. Ironically, however, his exit may make
it less likely that the Democrats contest this seat in November, as
unions have historically poured significant resources into the campaigns
of Hood’s opponents and because Hood never really garnered the
full support of Republican party leaders – two challenges the next
GOP nominee may not face.
THE
MORE THINGS CHANGE, THE MORE THEY STAY THE SAME
Despite a series of incidents that have taken their toll on the reputations
of Ohio Republicans and an overall political climate that – at
least right now – seems to favor Democrats, one advantage that
has helped sustain GOP legislative majorities for a decade doesn’t
appear to be suffering. A review of the campaign finance reports filed
on Jan. 31 and detailing activity through the end of 2005 reveals that
the House and Senate Republican caucus committees continue to vastly
outraise their Democrat counterparts.
After raising over $2 million in the last six months of 2005, the Ohio
House Republican Campaign Committee boasts an on-hand balance of over
$3.1 million – almost nine times as much as the $360,742 currently
available to the House Democratic Caucus Fund.
The picture in the Ohio Senate is quite similar. The Republican Senate
Campaign Committee reported $2 million on hand as compared with $417,566
for the Ohio Senate Democrats, an advantage of nearly 5-to-1.
Though the total dollars raised by the Democrat committees pales in
comparison to the GOP fundraising totals, the numbers reveal something
that should provide Democrats with a glimmer of hope while giving Republicans
a moment of pause: the House and Senate Democrat caucus fund year-end
balances were up significantly over recent years. The Ohio Senate Democrat
balance was nearly double what it was in both 2001 and 2003, while the
House Democratic Caucus Fund was up 35 percent.
By contrast, while the amount of money the House and Senate GOP committees
raised indicates that their fundraising probably hasn’t been hampered
by the party’s troubles in ’05, the on-hand amounts are virtually
unchanged over where they were at in both 2001 and 2003.
Over the past three elections, the House Republican caucus committee
has outspent the House Democrat caucus by an average of 7-to-1. In two
of these three election years, House Republicans gained seats. (House
Democrats did, however, pick up three seats in 2004, despite their financial
disadvantage.) Over these same three elections, Senate Republicans outspent
Senate Democrats 8-to-1 and saw their majority increase from 21 seats
to 22 in the 33-member Senate.
One of the biggest obstacles preventing the Democrats from being able
to cut into the GOP majorities in the House and Senate in recent elections
has been their inability to compete financially. Should these year-end
results represent the beginning of a trend and not just an anomaly for
the House Democratic Caucus Fund and the Ohio Senate Democrats, the
Democrats may have even more reason to be optimistic about reversing
their fortunes this November.
MILLER
SELECTED TO REPLACE BRADY IN SENATE
Though the departure of Sen. Dan Brady (D-Cleveland) to join the administration
of newly-elected Cleveland Mayor Frank Jackson has been anticipated
for some time, it wasn’t until this week that an official announcement
was made. And Senate Democrats acted promptly to replace Brady in the
Senate. On the same day that Brady made known his intent to resign,
they announced the selection of Rep. Dale Miller (D-Cleveland) as his
replacement.
While it was widely assumed Miller would eventually be tabbed to succeed
Brady, the timing of the announcement may have been accelerated in order
to head off a May primary. Both Miller and Ed FitzGerald, a Lakewood
city councilman and personal injury attorney, are declared candidates
for the Democrat nomination.
When Brady officially leaves the Senate on Feb. 28, he will be the third
member – and Miller’s ensuing resignation from the House will
make him the fourth – of the 126th General Assembly to depart before
the end of his term. Rep. Merle Kearns (R-Springfield) and Sen. Mark
Mallory (D-Cincinnati), both of whom resigned last year, are the others.
OHIO
UNIONS HALT MEMBERSHIP DECLINE
Every year, the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics
issues a report detailing union membership rates nationally and in each
state. Nationally in 2005, 12.5 percent of workers were union members,
unchanged from the year before.
In Ohio, however, the percentage increased – and increased significantly
– for the first time in five years. Of the roughly five million
people employed in Ohio, 804,000 were members of unions in 2005, or
nearly 16 percent of working Ohioans. In 2004 the percentage was just
15.2 percent. According to BLS, there were 45,000 more union members
in 2005 than in 2004, when just 759,000 Ohioans belonged to a union.
At the national level there were just 213,000 more union members in
2005 than 2004. Most of the increase was again realized not in the private
sector, but rather in the public sector. Private sector union membership
as a percentage of employed Americans has declined every year for more
than a decade, dropping to 7.8 last year from 7.9 percent the year before.
The number of government employees went up for the fifth consecutive
year, reaching a record high of 20.3 million, 36.5 percent of whom belong
to a union. Another trend – one that began in 1997 – continued
in 2005: the shrinking gap between the number of union members employed
in the private sector and those employed in the public sector. In 1997,
there were 2.6 million more union members working in the private sector
than in the public sector; today, there are just 825,000 more.
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