February 24, 2005 COMPETITIVE RACES COST BIG MONEY Much has been written about the lack of true competition between the two parties in many of Ohio’s legislative districts. Whatever the reasons – from term limits to structural biases favoring incumbents to partisan control of the redistricting process – the conclusion is ultimately accurate. In 2002, the first election after the current Senate and House districts were drawn, the winning candidate captured less than 55 percent of the vote in only 10 of the 116 General Assembly contests. Last year, just 15 of the 115 winners got less than 55 percent. This narrowing of the political playing field has resulted in an escalation of the costs of winning an election in one of these districts. The table below shows the ten most expensive House races of 2004: Rank District Candidates Combined Spending Winning Candidate Vote % 1 25 Dan Stewart (D) vs. Andy Bowers (R) $947,235 54.9% (Stewart) 2 57 Earl Martin (R) vs. Deanna Hill (D) $761,085 47.4% (Martin) 3 62 Lorraine Fende (D) vs. Chris Galloway (R) $675,423 53.4% (Fende) 4 41 Rep. Marilyn Slaby (R) vs. Brian Williams $659,554 50.2% (Williams) 5 58 Rep. Kathy Walcher (R) vs. Matt Barrett (D) $567,553 54.0% (Walcher) 6 46 Nancy Patrick Greeley (D) vs. Mark Wagoner (R) $363,830 62.0% (Wagoner) 7 96 Tom Gerber (R) vs. Allan Sayre (D) $355,866 54.3% (Sayre) 8 63 Tim Cassell (D) vs. B.J. Kresnye (R) $271,673 50.5% (Cassell) 9 17 Rep. Jim Trakas (R) vs. David Pomerantz (D) $255,157 53.2% (Trakas) 10 81 Rep. Jeff Wagner (R) vs. Bill Farrell $253,246 59.3% (Wagner) As the table indicates, in all but two of the ten most expensive races, the winning candidate got less than 55 percent. Clearly, the parties knew where to target their resources. The average combined amount of money spent in these ten races was more than $511,000. But how much did it cost to win one of these races? This table shows the year’s ten closest races and the amounts spent on behalf of each candidate: Margin District Winning Candidate Amount Spent Losing Candidate Amount Spent 50.2%-49.8% 41 Brian Williams (D) $171,453 Rep. Marilyn Slaby (R) $488,101 50.5%-49.5% 63 Tim Cassell (D) $76,652 B.J. Kresnye (R) $195,020 50.5%-49.5% 1 Rep. Chuck Blasdel (R) $147,563 Frank Rayl (D) $25,384 51.6%-48.4% 93 Jennifer Garrison (D) $72,632 Rep. Nancy Hollister (R) $81,041 53.4%-49.6% 62 Lorraine Fende (D) $181,775 Chris Galloway (R) $493,648 47.4%-43.0% 57 Rep. Earl Martin (R) $645,464 Deanna Hill (D) $115,621 52.6%-47.4% 21 Rep. Linda Reidelbach (R) $53,653 Abramo Ottolenghi (D) $47,320 52.6%-47.4% 91 Ron Hood (R) $107,231 Dan Dodd (D) $142,346 53.2%-46.8% 28 Rep. Jim Raussen (R) $101,872 Wayne Coates (D) $33,849 53.2%-46.8% 17 Rep. Jim Trakas (R) $174,445 David Pomerantz (D) $80,712 Interestingly, the average spent by winning candidate in these ten contests is roughly the same as that spent by the losing candidate: $173,000 to $170,000. The lesson is clear: if you’re going to run for the House and you live in a competitive district, you’d better bring your checkbook. On the other hand, if you’re not in a district that’s competitive between the two parties, you can probably do so relatively inexpensively – though if you’re a Democrat running in a heavily Republican district, or vice versa, you stand little chance of actually winning. Overall, there were 212 House candidates in 2004, and the total amount spent by all candidates and the two party caucus funds was approximately $21.5 million – a per candidate average of over $101,000. SUPREME COURT UPS FUNDRAISING LIMITS In an effort it hopes will encourage contributors to give directly to judicial candidates rather than to independent political efforts or issue advocacy organizations, the Ohio Supreme Court revised upwards the maximum contribution limits for judicial candidates. The new limits were adopted for 2005 campaigns and beyond. Of particular interest to Ohio businessmen and women is the increase in the amount an individual can contribute to a Supreme Court candidate’s campaign, from $2,500 to $3,000. Contributors to candidates for courts of appeals can now give $1,000, up from $750 previously. The maximum amounts PACs can give remain unchanged, at $5,500 for a Supreme Court candidate and $3,000 for an appeals court candidate. Beginning with the Court’s decision in 2001 to scrap altogether the spending limits candidates previously had to adhere to, the increases are the latest move taken by the Court to “allow donors greater ability to participate in judicial campaigns through contributions to candidate funds rather than third-party groups,” according to the Court’s press release on the latest revisions. The latest revisions also follow enactment by the Ohio General Assembly last year of campaign finance reform legislation that includes a quadrupling from $2,500 to $10,000 of the maximum individual contribution to a statewide non-judicial office or General Assembly candidate. TAKING THE PLUNGE In this era of legislative term limits, the door at the Statehouse seems always to be revolving…perhaps even more so this year, when ambitious politicians also see unique opportunities to seek statewide office in 2006. Whatever their motivations, several members of the legislature – and a prominent mayor – have recently made public their future plans. July 20, 2004 Sen. Mark Mallory (D-Cincinnati), who is term-limited in 2006, announced he would be a candidate for mayor of Cincinnati in 2005. At the time, it looked as if Mallory would be challenging incumbent Mayor Charlie Luken, also a Democrat. However, Luken has subsequently ruled out running for re-election. Cincinnati has a non-partisan primary on Sept. 13. The top two vote-getters will compete in the Nov. 8 general election. January 2005 Rep. Sylvester Patton (D-Youngstown) announced he would run for mayor of Youngstown. Patton, first appointed to the House in 1997, is facing term limits. Outgoing Mayor George McKelvey, a Democrat, is term-limited, too. February 1, 2005 Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman, a Democrat, became the first candidate of either party to officially declare for governor of Ohio in 2006. Gov. Bob Taft is term-limited. Coleman is in the middle of his second term as the mayor of Ohio’s largest city, and had no Republican opponent in his 2003 re-election bid. When he was first elected mayor in 1999, he became the first Democrat elected mayor of Columbus in 28 years. He was Lee Fisher’s running mate when Fisher ran unsuccessfully against Taft for governor in 1998. February 14, 2005 Sen. Bob Hagan (D-Youngstown) is another term-limited senator running for mayor of Youngstown. He became the seventh candidate in the field to replace outgoing Mayor George McKelvey, a Democrat. Hagan was first elected to the House in 1986 and was re-elected five times before moving to the Senate in 1997. February 21, 2005 The first Republican to officially declare for an ’06 statewide office is Rep. Jim Trakas (R-Independence). Trakas is term-limited in the House. He announced that he is seeking the GOP nomination for Secretary of State. Incumbent Secretary of State Ken Blackwell is term-limited, too, and is preparing to run for governor. Trakas resigned earlier this year from his position as chairman of the Cuyahoga County Republican Party in anticipation of his statewide bid.