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GOP
STATEWIDE SUCCESS DEPENDS ON
CUYAHOGA COUNTY MARGIN: FACT OR FICTION?
With the election season upon us, old political canards are being trotted
out with regularity. If you’ve picked up a newspaper recently you’ve
undoubtedly read the year’s most repeated one: “No Republican
has ever been elected president without winning Ohio.” If you haven’t
heard or read it, just be patient; you will.
This canard happens to be true. Since the birth of the party in the
mid 1800’s, no Republican has won the presidency without carrying
Ohio. Of course, only three Democrats were elected having lost Ohio,
so Ohio is crucial for both parties at the presidential level.
P.a.C.E. recently examined another political canard that has become
a staple of Ohio politics: “For a GOP candidate to win statewide
in Ohio, he must not lose Cuyahoga County by more than 100,000 votes.”
So, is it true?
To find the answer, we looked at every statewide race in Ohio from 1986-2002,
a total of 56 elections for president, U.S. senator, governor, secretary
of state, attorney general, auditor, treasurer, and Supreme Court justice.
While the results don’t show that this statement is always true,
it’s awfully close. The Democrat candidates carried Cuyahoga County
outright in 42 of these 56 elections. Of the 14 contests in which the
Republican actually won Cuyahoga County, the candidate won the state
in every case save for one. The one exception was the 1988 Supreme Court
campaign won by Democrat William Sweeney. Republican Paul Matia of Cuyahoga
County actually won the county by just over 5,000 votes while losing
statewide by more 567,000.
Of the 22 races in which the Republican lost Cuyahoga but stayed within
the magical 100,000 vote margin, he or she won the state 18 times.
The four exceptions were the candidacies of Vincent Campanella for secretary
of state and Joyce George for Supreme Court in 1986, Jim Petro for auditor
in 1990, and Sara Harper for Supreme Court in 1994. Campanella, Petro,
and Harper were all Cuyahoga County natives, and both Petro and Harper
were running against a candidate who was not, likely accounting for
their decent showings in the county despite their overall defeats.
Further, in the 20 contests that saw the Democrat carry Cuyahoga by
more than 100,000, the GOP candidates’ statewide winning record
was just 5-and-15. The four candidates who lost by more than 100,000
but still won statewide: George H.W. Bush for President in 1988, Paul
Pfeifer for Supreme Court in 1992, Betty Montgomery for Attorney General
in 1994, George W. Bush for President in 2000, and Joe Deters for Treasurer
in 2002. With the exception of the two presidential contests, the Democrat
nominees in these races all called Cuyahoga County home.
Having established that this canard is appreciably true, what might
it tell us about this year’s statewide contests?
Both U.S. Senate candidates – incumbent Sen. George Voinovich and
his challenger, state Sen. Eric Fingerhut – are from Cuyahoga County.
Given the county’s decidedly Democrat leanings, Voinovich should
benefit from his native son status and stands a good chance of keeping
his margin there well within the 100,000 vote range. In fact, he’s
always done well in his home county, winning it outright both times
he ran for governor, in 1990 and 1994, and losing by just 27,000 votes
to fellow Cuyahoga County resident Mary Boyle in 1998 the first time
he ran for Senate.
Each of the three Ohio Supreme Court contests features a Cuyahoga County
candidate vs. a non-Cuyahoga County candidate. Chief Justice Thomas
Moyer of Franklin County faces former Cleveland Municipal Court Judge
C. Ellen Connally. Moyer won Cuyahoga County outright in his 1998 re-election
campaign and lost it by less than 100,000 in his 1992 race, but neither
opponent was from Cuyahoga. Having a Cuyahoga County opponent must make
Justice Moyer uncomfortable and is another reason for Ohio business
leaders not to overlook this race. (See our March 18, 2004 Political
Edge for other reasons.) In fact, Connally received more votes in the
March primary in Cuyahoga County than did any other Supreme Court candidate
this year, Democrat or Republican.
Appointed Justice Terrence O’Donnell is opposed by Appeals Court
Judge William O’Neill of Geauga County. Despite being from Cuyahoga
County, O’Donnell lost the county by more than 126,000 votes when
he ran unsuccessfully for Supreme Court in 2000. He’ll clearly
need to perform better there this year than he did four years ago.
In the third race, an open seat contest, Cuyahoga County Common Pleas
Court Judge Nancy Fuerst squares off against Appeals Court Judge Judith
Lanzinger of Lucas County. As a first-time statewide candidate running
against a native daughter, Lanzinger will have to work Cuyahoga County
extremely hard and effectively in order to minimize her likely deficit
there. She can take some inspiration from the fact that the last time
a female Lucas County judge ran against a female Cuyahoga County judge
for a Supreme Court seat, the Lucas County candidate won the campaign.
However, in that race – the aforementioned 1994 Sara Harper campaign
– the Republican was the Cuyahoga County candidate, kept her Cuyahoga
margin under 100,000 votes and lost anyway.
As for Pres. Bush? His objective needs to be to do better in Franklin
County. Franklin is much more of a swing county, and he lost it to Al
Gore by less than 5,000 votes in 2000 while getting absolutely clobbered
– losing by nearly 157,000 votes – in Cuyahoga. Nonetheless,
he still won Ohio and, as we all know, “No Republican has ever
been elected president without winning Ohio."
NIEHAUS-SCHMIDT
RACE FINALLY – AND OFFICIALLY – OVER
Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-Loveland) had ten days after the April 16 certification
of Rep. Tom Niehaus’ (R-New Richmond) narrow 22-vote victory over
her in the GOP primary in the 14th Ohio Senate district to file a petition
to contest the election. April 26 came and went without her filing such
a petition and, thus, the year’s most competitive and combative
primary is finally settled.
Though one of her attorneys had suggested there were “irregularities”
in the way ballots were handled in Brown County, in the end Rep. Schmidt
and her attorneys presumably concluded that the evidence wasn’t
sufficient or the legal costs would be too high – or both.
Rep. Niehaus will now face Paul Schwietering (D-Cherry Grove) in November
in this heavily Republican district.
KEY
KERRY DNC APPOINTMENT
GOES TO OHIO CONGRESSWOMAN
Ohio’s importance in this year’s presidential election was
once again underscored by the appointment
last month of U.S. Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones (D-Cleveland) to one of
the most prominent positions in the Democratic Party, a co-chair of
the Democratic National Committee. The other co-chair is U.S. Sen. Dick
Durbin of Illinois.
Her selection comes as a result of Sen. John Kerry having all-but-officially
captured the Democratic presidential nomination. As the party’s
nominee, he and his campaign gain significant control over the party
organization, including the naming of the individuals to important leadership
posts.
As co-chairs, Tubbs Jones and Durbin will work with DNC Chairman Terry
McAuliffe to augment Kerry’s message nationally and to ensure the
coordination of the presidential campaign with the Democratic members
of the U.S. Congress. They will also play a role in fundraising for
the party.
BIG
BENCH BACKS BUSH, BECK
More than 15 years ago, in the landmark decision, Communications Workers
of America v. Beck, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that union workers
are entitled to a refund of that portion of their union dues used for
purposes not directly related to collective bargaining. The case recognized
the basic right of workers to decide for themselves what political agendas
they want to support.
Ever since, unions have attempted to keep their rank-and-file in the
dark about these rights. But last month, the U.S. Supreme Court denied
the petition of the U.A.W. to review a Circuit Court decision upholding
Pres. Bush’s Executive Order 13201. The Order, issued by the President
in 20001, reversed Clinton Administration policy and requires federal
contractors to post notice of employees’ Beck rights.
Union leaders, as illustrated by their opposition to the posting requirement,
don’t want their members to know about Beck, as such knowledge
might jeopardize how much money they have available to spend on their
political programs. In addition, even employers have resisted informing
their union workers about these rights, for fear of antagonizing labor
leaders.
Nonetheless, the Supreme Court ruling is a significant step in the effort
to educate workers unfamiliar with their Beck rights – and in rolling
back the unions’ ability to underwrite their political activities
with money collected involuntarily.
PEW
PERCEIVES POLL PARTICIPATION BY PUBLIC PLUMMETTING
One of the most important tools of the modern political campaign is
polling. Polls provide the information candidates and organizations
need to help steer their campaigns and issues through the electoral
waters. Most people think of polling in terms of predicting outcomes,
i.e. “who’s winning” or “who’s ahead.”
But the real value of polls is in capturing and analyzing the direction
and essence of voter opinion.
It’s certainly not the only important factor, but the key element
in a poll’s reliability is its sample size. Because polls are simply
approximations of public opinion, the more people interviewed, the smaller
the margin of error. And a new poll conducted by the Pew Research Center
shows that more Americans are refusing to participate in telephone polls
– an ominous trend for electoral politics. More refusals means
more calls have to be made to achieve the necessary sample size –
and more calls leads to more time and a higher cost.
The logical assumption might be that the increased used of answering
machines, call blocking, caller ID, and other such devices is the culprit.
However, they’re not. Survey organizations are reaching an adult
in most households, but the number willing to cooperate once reached
is what is diminishing.
In 1997, a majority (58%) of those reached were willing to complete
the survey. In 2003, just 38% were. Pew concludes that it’s a combination
of busy schedules and skepticism that are contributing to the higher
refusal rates.
More important, however, is their conclusion that “there is little
to suggest that those who do not participate hold substantially different
views on policy and political issues.” For now, at least, this
means that, while pollsters may have to make more calls to get a completed
interview, they still are able to obtain representative samples and
provide results are statistically accurate.
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