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STRICKLAND
REVERSES COURSE, ENTERS GOVERNOR’S RACE
Many times in recent months you’ve read stories in The Political
Edge concerning the three candidates angling for the GOP gubernatorial
nomination in 2006: Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, Auditor of State
Betty Montgomery, and Attorney General Jim Petro. We’ve described
this potential three-way GOP primary as a “battle royale.”
Now it appears as if the Democrats will have a “battle royale”
in their gubernatorial primary, too.
After declaring in January that he wouldn’t seek the Democratic
nomination for governor, U.S. Rep. Ted Strickland formally announced
on Monday his entrance into the governor’s race. He becomes the
second Democrat entrant, following Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman, who
announced his candidacy on February 1. (See the February 24, 2005 issue
of The Political Edge.)
The timing of Strickland’s turnabout has fueled speculation that
the recent missteps by Coleman, particularly his testy on-air exchange
last month with nationally syndicated conservative radio talk show host
Glen Beck (click here if you haven’t heard it), have made Democrats
nervous about whether or not Coleman is prepared to handle the attention
and focus a contested Ohio gubernatorial race would bring. Strickland
also said he decided to enter the race after his fellow congressman,
Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-Lorain), decided last week against running.
Strickland’s move may also have a bearing on Lee Fisher’s
decision whether or not to enter the race. Rumors have circulated recently
that Fisher was leaning towards seeking the Democratic nomination, as
well. As a three-time statewide candidate, Fisher is probably better
known across Ohio right now than are either Coleman or Strickland.
STRICKLAND
OPEN SEAT CONTEST SURE TO BE COSTLY
As with every decision by an incumbent officeholder to pursue something
other than re-election, shockwaves will be felt throughout the political
system now that Strickland has opted to run for governor. The 6th congressional
district, which Strickland has represented since 1996, is, on paper,
the most politically competitive of Ohio’s 18 congressional districts.
Pres. George W. Bush captured 51% of the vote in the 6th congressional
district in last year’s presidential contest.
The district includes runs along the Ohio River from the Youngstown
suburbs to Scioto County and contains all of Columbiana, Gallia, Jefferson,
Lawrence, Meigs, Monroe, Noble, and Washington Counties and portions
of Athens, Belmont, Mahoning, and Scioto Counties. An open seat contest
in such a district will undoubtedly draw intense national interest,
attention, and resources and would also be an extremely costly race.
The race would be similar to open seat contests that occurred last year
in Colorado’s 3rd district, Kentucky’s 4th district, and Washington’s
8th district. In Colorado 3, Democrat Ken Salazar defeated Republican
Greg Walcher 51%-47%. According to the Federal Election Commission,
the two candidates combined to spend $3.1 million and outside groups
spent $4.5 million, for total spending in the race of more than $7.6
million. In neighboring Kentucky, where Republican Geoff Davis defeated
Democrat Nick Clooney 54%-44%, the two candidates spent $4.1 million
and outside groups chipped in $3.9 million. Outside spending was also
a huge factor in Washington 8, where, in addition to the nearly $3 million
spent by the two candidates, another $6.2 million flowed in from elsewhere.
The race was decided by a 52%-47% margin.
So who are the candidates likely to subject themselves to this kind
of campaign? Here are just a few initial possibilities:
Republicans
Barry Bennett – Bennett is currently a Washington, D.C.-based
political consultant. He was the chief of staff to former Cong. Frank
Cremeans, who lost his seat to Strickland in 1996. Bennett is not related
to Ohio Republican Party Chairman Robert Bennett.
Chuck Blasdel – Last year, amid the early speculation that Strickland
would be a gubernatorial candidate, Blasdel explored a congressional
candidacy. He traveled the district extensively, meeting with and introducing
himself to party leaders. This early work now appears to have made
him the probable favorite for the GOP nomination – if he wants
it. However, he has a young son and family considerations will weigh
heavily in his decision. The third-term state representative serves
as House Speaker Pro Tempore, the second-ranking leadership position
in the House. He is from East Liverpool in Columbiana County, which
is the largest single county in the 6th district.
Danny Harmon – Harmon is currently serving his first term as a
Noble County commissioner. The retired Air Force veteran captured the
seat with 51% of the vote in 2002 and has been a declared candidate
for Congress since January. Noble is the least populated county in
the district and the second-least populated county in Ohio.
Jimmy Stewart – The second-term state representative from Athens
has already run for this seat once before, so the ambition is evident.
In 2000, he lost a close GOP primary race to Mike Azinger, 51%-49%.
Stewart probably won’t run if Blasdel does.
Jill Thompson – Thompson is currently serving her first full term
as Athens County Auditor. Like Blasdel, Thompson also has a young family
and the timing may not be right for a congressional bid. However, as
the only countywide elected Republican in heavily Democratic Athens
County, she would be an attractive candidate.
Democrats
Terry Anderson – Many thought that Anderson’s candidacy last
year for the Ohio Senate was simply a prelude to a run for another
office, either statewide or for Congress. However, he didn’t perform
as well as expected in the Senate race and may have damaged his political
prospects. The former Associated Press correspondent who was taken
hostage by Lebanese terrorists in 1985 lost 54%-46% to Joy Padgett.
Nonetheless, four of the counties in the 6th congressional district
are in the 20th Senate district, and Anderson defeated Padgett in two
of them.
John Boccieri – Boccieri is a third-term state representative
from New Middletown in Mahoning County. He is also a captain in the
Air Force Reserve who has already been called up twice for active duty
in Iraq. Boccieri may have to decide between running for Congress and
running for the Ohio Senate. Sen. Bob Hagan (D-Youngstown) is term-limited
and Boccieri has long expressed interest in succeeding him in the Senate.
John Reardon – The Mahoning County Treasurer contemplated a run
for Congress in 2002 in the 17th congressional district but decided
against running. Reardon is serving his second full term as treasurer
and was unopposed in both 2000 and 2004.
Ed Reese – Reese served one term as a Mahoning County Commissioner
before opting not to seek re-election in 2004. He won his only race,
in 2000, with 66% of the vote.
Charlie Wilson – Wilson is perhaps the Democrats’ strongest
potential candidate. After serving four terms in the Ohio House he
was recently elected to the Ohio Senate. His Senate district includes
three counties also in the 6th congressional district and his conservative
approach resembles Strickland’s.
ONE
IN, ANOTHER OUT IN ATTORNEY GENERAL RACE
Last week, Sen. Tim Grendell (R-Chesterland) became the first candidate
to officially declare his candidacy for Attorney General next year.
The position is currently held by Jim Petro, who has already announced
plans to run for governor.
Grendell, a practicing attorney, was elected just last year to his first
term in the Ohio Senate, capturing 60% of the vote in an open seat contest.
Grendell previously served two terms in the Ohio House, succeeding his
wife Diane Grendell in 2001.
He is considered one of the most conservative members of the legislature
and was a leader of a small group of conservatives in the House who
frequently disagreed with party leadership on key policy issues. His
cumulative pro-business voting record as scored by the Ohio Chamber’s
Political and Candidate Education (P.a.C.E.) is 91%.
Though Grendell currently has the field to himself, at least one other
Republican is said to be exploring a candidacy for Attorney General:
Franklin County Prosecutor Ron O’Brien. However, an official announcement
by O’Brien, if he decides to run, likely won’t come until
after the conclusion of the trial of Charles McCoy, the alleged Ohio
“beltway sniper.” O’Brien is personally trying the case.
McCoy’s first trial ended this past weekend in a mistrial.
Cuyahoga County Prosecutor Bill Mason, long presumed to be the frontrunner
for the Democratic nomination, surprised many with his announcement
late last month that he would not be a candidate for Attorney General
in 2006. He cited family concerns as the reason for his decision.
Because other Democrats who may have an interest in the position but
didn’t want to oppose Mason in a primary weren’t actively
pursuing the nomination, the Democratic field appears now to be wide
open.
HAGAN WINS YOUNGSTOWN MAYORAL PRIMARY
In the February 24 issue of The Political Edge, we noted that two incumbent
state lawmakers – Sen. Bob Hagan and Rep. Sylvester Patton –
were among a field of seven candidates seeking the Democratic nomination
for mayor of Youngstown. The primary, held on May 3, was won by Hagan
with 32% of the vote. Patton finished fourth with 14%.
Hagan now becomes the odds-on favorite to win the General Election in
solidly Democratic Youngstown – though he will face a Republican
and four independents in November. Should he win, he’d have to
resign his seat in the Senate sometime around the end of 2005. Once
he resigns, the ten remaining Democrats in the Ohio Senate would choose
a successor to serve out the remaining year of his term.
At least two individuals have been contemplating a run to succeed Hagan:
current Rep. John Boccieri and former Rep. and current Mahoning County
Recorder Ron Gerberry. Gerberry may run in the 2006 primary even if
he doesn’t get appointed to the seat. He has been eyeing a return
to Columbus since he was forced out of the House in 2000 due to term
limits and reportedly has already raised in excess of $50,000 for a
potential Senate primary. Having just been re-elected county recorder
last year, Gerberry could also run for the Senate from cover.
Boccieri, on the other hand, could decide to seek another office if
he doesn’t get the appointment. In addition to being interested
in the open 6th congressional district seat, he has been touted as a
potential statewide candidate, perhaps for secretary of state. Boccieri
could also choose to run for one final term in the Ohio House.
DATE AND FIELD SET FOR RACE TO REPLACE PORTMAN
The big political story in March was the nomination by Pres. Bush of
U.S. Rep. Rob Portman of Ohio to be U.S. trade representative. Since
that time, a number of developments have occurred: Portman was confirmed
by the U.S. Senate and subsequently resigned from the House, Gov. Bob
Taft scheduled the primary election for June 14 and the special general
election for Aug. 2, and 19 candidates filed petitions to run in the
special election.
We previewed 13 of the candidates likeliest to jump in the race to succeed
Portman in Congress in the last issue of The Political Edge, and five
of them did. The complete list of candidates that filed to run in the
June 14 primary:
Democrats
Paul Hackett, Russell Hurley, Jeff Sinnard and Victoria Wells Wulsin
of Hamilton County, James Parker of Pike County, and Arthur Katz and
Charles Sanders of Warren County.
Republicans
Steve Austin and Jeff Morgan of Adams County, Jean Schmidt of Clermont
County, Tom Bemmes, Tom Brinkman, Pat DeWine, Peter Fossett, August
Geier, Bob McEwen, Eric Minamyer and Doug Mink of Hamilton County,
and David Smith of Warren County.
Hamilton County
Commissioner DeWine is the favorite to ultimately win the general election
in this solid Republican district, with State Rep. Brinkman, former
Cong. McEwen, and former State Rep. Schmidt being the candidates most
capable of providing the strongest challenge in the GOP primary.
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