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JUST
871 DAYS AND COUNTING…
Until Election Day 2006. Though the elections of 2002 are barely behind
us and the presidential contest of 2004 is just now developing, the
2006 campaigns are already coming into focus.
Republicans have dominated Ohio’s political landscape for better
than a decade, having swept all five statewide offices – Governor,
Attorney General, Auditor, Secretary of State, and Treasurer –
in 1994, 1998, and again in 2002. Though Ohio’s constitution mandates
that holders of these offices serve no more than two consecutive terms,
the GOP has maintained its power largely by maneuvering just six individuals
up and down the ticket during the past 12 years.
Over the course of that time four of the six – Ken Blackwell, Betty
Montgomery, Jim Petro, and Bob Taft – shared a long-term ambition
to serve as Governor of Ohio. When then Gov. George Voinovich ran up
against term limits in 1998, both Blackwell and Taft sought to run to
succeed him. But Ohio Republican Party Chairman Bob Bennett persuaded
then Treasurer Blackwell to run for Secretary of State – the position
Taft held at the time but was prevented by term limits from running
for again – and a GOP primary was avoided.
With Taft now serving his second and final term as Governor, the specter
of 2006 is beginning to loom large. Blackwell will be term limited as
Secretary of State. Though Montgomery and Petro are currently serving
their first terms as Auditor and Attorney General, respectively, both
have made it clear the governor’s race is what they plan on making
in 2006.
Blackwell and Montgomery are both 55 years old, while Petro is 53, and
the prospect of waiting even four more years to run for governor –
let alone eight, should the eventual 2006 GOP nominee win and also get
re-elected in 2010 – seems untenable.
A primary with these three candidates alone would be one for the ages,
testing the candidates’ organizational strength, fundraising ability,
and personal popularity as well as setting up interesting contrasts
involving race, gender, and ideology. Though U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine has
said he intends to seek re-election to the U.S. Senate in 2006 despite
rumored interest in running for governor, it’s also possible other
candidates could emerge, as well.
Getting any of them to step aside in favor of another “for the
good of the party” seems far-fetched this time around, particularly
given the fact that Bennett himself may retire as party chairman following
next year’s presidential election. A new chairman in his first
term likely won’t have the clout to dissuade these three ambitious
veterans focused on the prize of being governor.
The fallout from such a clash of the titans would be felt down the ballot
as well. With Taft departing and Blackwell, Montgomery, and Petro all
running for Governor, the lone remaining current statewide officeholder,
Treasurer Joe Deters, has already declared his intent to run for Attorney
General. That means that every office will feature an open seat contest,
and that the GOP ticket will have three fresh faces – the party’s
most since 1990. To a party accustomed to running proven vote getters,
such a slate of first-time statewide candidates represents both a potential
asset and a potential liability.
Things will be different in 2006 on the Democratic ticket, as well.
Though the Democrats haven’t won a statewide race for a constitutional
office since 1990, gone are the days when the party will have to turn
to Rob Burch or Tim Hagan as their gubernatorial candidate or to folks
like Helen Knipe Smith, Louis Strike, or Randall Sweeney to fill out
their ballot. Their stable of attractive candidates is growing.
As we reported in the May 23 issue of The Political Edge, state Sen.
Eric Fingerhut (Cleveland), Cleveland Mayor Jane Campbell, and Columbus
Mayor Mike Coleman are all considered rising stars within the Democratic
Party.
Fingerhut is already running statewide, currently seeking his party’s
nomination to run against Sen. Voinovich next year. Even if he’s
not successful in defeating Voinovich, a strong effort could establish
him as a legitimate contender to win an open statewide contest two years
hence.
As we also mentioned in the May 23 issue, Coleman recently hired a full-time
political consultant to maximize the exposure Columbus gets during the
2004 presidential campaign, a gambit that will no doubt raise his own
profile in the process.
The party also has other potentially attractive candidates currently
holding office in Congress, at the county level, and as mayors of other
large cities. In fact, U.S. Rep. Ted Strickland said recently that some
party officials and union leaders have urged him to consider running
for Governor in 2006.
No preliminary polls have been done that provide a glimpse at some of
the potential General Election matchups, but one has been done that
assesses the early strength of the likely GOP candidates.
Montgomery recently e-mailed her supporters with the results of a statewide
poll that, out of the Blackwell-Montgomery-Petro trio, showed her with
the highest favorable rating among voters. She had a 53%-12% favorable-to-unfavorable
rating, while Petro’s numbers were 42%-19% and Blackwell’s
38%-14%.
871 days are a few lifetimes in politics, and there are so many factors
that will transform the political landscape between now and then as
to make any predictions today about what will happen in 2006 meaningless.
The only thing certain is that it will be a watershed year in Ohio politics.
TODAY ON JERRY SPRINGER: FAME, FORTUNE & POLITICS
Just about every newspaper – in Ohio and elsewhere – has written
recently about the possible Senate candidacy of talk show host Jerry
Springer. Many have been printed just in the last week, following the
recent unveiling of the website for his exploratory committee, www.runjerryrun.com.
So, the big question is, “Is he a viable candidate?”
Well, his name recognition statewide is 98%, according to a February
2003 Ohio Poll conducted by the Institute for Policy Research at the
University of Cincinnati. That’s about the same as the man he’d
like to defeat, U.S. Sen. George Voinovich, whose name recognition in
the same poll is 99%.
But that’s where the similarities end. Voinovich’s net favorability
rating (favorable minus unfavorable) is +36%. Springer’s is -58%,
and his unfavorable rating is at or above 50% among every subgroup of
voters – including Democrats. By contrast, Voinovich’s favorables
exceed his unfavorables among every subgroup except for respondents
who identified themselves as liberal. Head-to-head, Voinovich leads
Springer 77 to 16 percent.
While Springer is still considering whether or not to seek the Democratic
nomination, state Sen. Eric Fingerhut (D-Cleveland) is already off and
running. In a head-to-head against Voinovich, Fingerhut trails 67 to
24 percent. He still trails by a significant margin, but not by as much
as Springer. Unfortunately for Fingerhut, his name recognition is only
45%.
And that’s where the infatuation with Springer comes in. He has
the two biggest assets any potential candidate needs: name recognition
and money. Springer said he will “put plenty of my own money in”
if he chooses to run.
At his new website, he makes the plea that he needs a “national
base of small donors,” in addition to his own resources, in order
to stand a chance of defeating Voinovich. What kind of response Springer
gets to the website will help him decide whether or not to seek the
Democratic nomination.
A former mayor of Cincinnati, Springer last ran for office in 1982,
losing in the Democratic primary for Governor. After that, he worked
as a TV news anchor for Cincinnati’s NBC affiliate for the next
ten years. He has been the host of “The Jerry Springer Show”
since 1991, which is the source of his nearly universal name recognition
– and his high unfavorable ratings.
Speaking mainly at county Democratic Party events, Springer has traveled
all over the state this year to gauge reaction to and raise interest
in his potential candidacy. Though the Ohio Poll doesn’t test Fingerhut
vs. Springer head-to-head, Springer’s name recognition alone should
be enough to get him past a primary fight against Fingerhut. Democrats
are tantalized by Springer’s fame and fortune, but these assets
don’t give him the same advantage over Voinovich, who, as an incumbent
U.S. Senator, will have little difficulty raising money for his campaign.
Ultimately, two factors will tell the story of Springer’s chances
of knocking off Voinovich, and both stem from “The Jerry Springer
Show.” First, does his candidacy motivate the demographic that
comprises his TV audience – which is made up largely of individuals
that don’t typically vote – to register and turn out at the
polls to vote for Springer? Second, will the raunchy and sometimes exploitative
reputation of his TV show be too much of an albatross around his neck
to overcome?
A Springer candidacy would make for a fascinating contest of contrasts
between the staid Voinovich and the audacious Springer. It would no
doubt result in some entertaining political commercials. It probably
would spur more voter interest and, in turn, larger voter turnout.
In the end, though, it likely boils down to just one pertinent question
– one the Voinovich campaign will no doubt do its best to make
certain Ohioans ask themselves: Do I really want to send to Washington
to represent me a man who has spent the last 13 years manipulating society’s
most dysfunctional individuals and glorifying its most deviant and reprehensible
conduct?
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