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CURRENT
AND FORMER REPS TO SQUARE OFF
IN DEMOCRAT SENATE PRIMARY
For the third issue in a row, we begin by looking at yet another primary
fight taking shape for a Senate seat that will be open next year because
of term limits.
Last week, former Rep. Jerry Krupinski (D-Steubenville) announced his
intention to run for the Democratic nomination in the 30th Senate district.
The district includes Belmont, Columbiana, Harrison, and Jefferson Counties
as well as most of Tuscarawas County. The incumbent is Senate Minority
Leader Greg DiDonato (D-New Philadelphia).
Krupinski’s declaration comes on the heels of the announcement
by Rep. Charlie Wilson (D-St. Clairsville) earlier this month that he
will be running to succeed DiDonato. Wilson’s decision was a foregone
conclusion, for he had been eyeing a run and lining up support for some
time.
On the other hand, Krupinski’s decision to run is much more of
a surprise. He served seven terms in the Ohio House before being forced
out in 2000 by term limits. Since then, he has had health problems and
his wife Eileen, who succeeded him in the House, was defeated in the
Democrat primary last year by John Domenick in her bid for a second
term. Some have speculated that Krupinski’s decision to take on
Wilson is retribution for the party not doing more to assist his wife
win re-election. During his time in the House, the former insurance
agent compiled just a 59% cumulative pro-business voting record.
Small business owner Wilson is term-limited this year and begins as
a slight favorite in this race, largely because of his early start and
his ability to out-fundraise Krupinski. He could probably access significant
personal financial resources if necessary, too. Wilson has a solid 93%
cumulative pro-business voting record in his six-plus years in the House.
Organized labor has a strong presence in the district, dominated by
steelworkers and mineworkers unions in Belmont and Jefferson Counties.
Both candidates have courted and received labor support in the past,
and an endorsement by labor would be a significant factor in either
candidate’s favor in this race.
Though the largest county in the district is Columbiana, which accounts
for about one-third of the district’s population, more Democrat
primary voters will likely come from Belmont and Jefferson Counties.
Wilson is from Belmont County and has represented all of it in the House,
though his current House district includes only about two-thirds of
the county. Wilson has never represented Jefferson County, which is
Krupinski’s home county.
While other candidates could still emerge – a candidate from Columbiana
County would certainly complicate the picture – a Krupinski-Wilson
matchup will be one to watch. And unlike the winners of the two GOP
Senate primaries we previewed in the last two issues of The Political
Edge, the winner of this primary will still have to face a potentially
tough General Election campaign against an as-yet-unknown Republican
challenger.
Former Rep. and current Tuscarawas County Commissioner Kerry Metzger
(R-New Philadelphia) and former Columbiana County Commissioner and unsuccessful
’02 congressional candidate Mike Halleck (R-Salem) are two possibilities.
2002 CORPORATE PAC GIVING, PART II
In the last issue of The Political Edge, we published a list of the
50 largest corporate PAC contributors during 2002, a list taken from
our recently completed comprehensive study of corporate PAC giving in
2002. The results underscore the reality that Ohio’s business community
is, politically, a force to be reckoned with, as the 50 largest corporate
PACs alone gave out over $2.1 million in campaign contributions last
year.
As part of our study of corporate PAC giving, we also looked at how
all this money was spent. Did business PACs target their political resources
in the most effective manner possible? To provide at least a partial
answer to this question, we determined how much each PAC gave in 2002
to the Ohio Chamber’s “Chamber Choice” candidates.
The Chamber Choice program was created in 1994 to encourage corporate
and business association PACs to direct their resources to candidates
who can make a difference for the entire business community. Since that
time, the Chamber Choice label has been used to identify pro-business
candidates running in competitive races that need business help to get
elected.
The slate of Chamber Choice candidates in 2002 included Sens. John Carey
and Kevin Coughlin, Reps. Chuck Blasdel, Merle Kearns, Jim Raussen,
and Mary Taylor, former Rep. Jeff Manning, and unsuccessful candidate
Dave Dobos. Collectively, the top 50 PACs gave nearly $106,000 to these
eight candidates, or only 9.1% of the $2.1 million total contributed
in 2002.
Below is a list of the ten PACs who gave the largest percentage of their
money to Chamber Choice candidates in 2002, as a percentage of the total
dollars each gave to all candidates for the Ohio General Assembly. Only
corporate PACs that gave at least $1,000 to Chamber Choice candidates
were compared. We recognize that a PAC could have given the maximum
legal limit to all eight Chamber Choice candidates and still have a
low percentage, if the total dollars contributed were sufficiently high.
However, no corporate PAC approached maxing out to all eight candidates
in 2002.
PACs that give a significant percentage of their available resources
to Chamber Choice candidates are to be commended. Since most of the
races involving Chamber Choice candidates were decided by close margins,
support provided by these PACs has helped make a real difference in
the pro-business composition of the legislature.
THE
EARLY LINE ON ’04 SENATE ELECTIONS
When the GOP-controlled Apportionment Board redrew General Assembly
district boundaries in 1991, it was done, of course, to maximize the
number of districts Republican candidates could win.
The redrawn Senate lines appeared to shore up GOP strength in at least
three and in perhaps as many as five districts, as well as give the
party a legitimate shot at picking up the 17th district In addition,
the newly crafted 5th district provided Republicans with at least some
hope of winning there, too.
CURRENT
SENATE DISTRICT BOUNDARIES
In
the first post-reapportionment elections last year, the changes to the
13th district may have been the only thing that helped Sen. Jeff Armbruster
(R-N. Ridgeville) win re-election. He won by less than 400 votes over
challenger Sue Morano (D-Lorain). Had the eastern half of Seneca County
– an area Armbruster won by about 650 votes – not been added
to the district, he may very well have lost.
In the 17th district, the new lines ultimately did cost Sen. Mike Shoemaker
(D-Bourneville) his job. He won his last election in 1998 with nearly
62% of the vote, was popular with his constituents, and had a well-recognized
surname – but the 17th district of 2002 looked little like the
one that he was elected to four years earlier. And much of the new territory
– Clinton, Fayette, and Highland Counties, in particular –
is decidedly Republican. As a result, then-Rep. John Carey (R-Wellston)
ousted Shoemaker fairly easily, winning 54%-46%.
While the GOP closed the gap in the 5th district in 2002, the additions
of part of Darke County and the rest of Miami County couldn’t offset
the heavy-Democrat tendencies of voters in the City of Dayton. The Republican
candidate lost last year by only 52%-48%, as compared to a 61%-39% defeat
in 1998, but lost nonetheless.
At the end of the day, redrawn districts helped the Republicans increase
their control of the Senate by one seat, from 21-12 to 22-11. This margin
represents the biggest disparity between the two parties in the Ohio
Senate since the 1967-68 General Assembly, when the GOP controlled 23
seats.
So, what are the prospects for change in 2004? Will the status quo prevail?
Will Republicans reach or exceed a 23-seat majority not seen in close
to 40 years? Or will Democrats be able to reverse a trend that has seen
them increase their numbers from one election to the next just one time
in the past 20 years?
In the chart below, you’ll see our initial projections for the
2004 elections. Though the GOP must defend 13 seats to only three for
the Democrats, there are opportunities for both parties.
Next year will be first elections held in even-numbered Senate districts
under the new lines. The changes should, as they were designed to do,
help Republican candidates hold onto the 18th and 24th districts, though
competitive elections are possible in either district. At least until
Democrat candidates in these districts are identified, both are listed
as “Lean GOP.”
On paper, the district most likely to see a competitive contest –
i.e. a “toss-up” district – is the 20th.
The incumbent, Sen. Jim Carnes (R-St. Clairsville), is term limited,
and it is not yet known whom either party will field as its nominee.
Rumors persist that Carnes will step down early and be replaced by former
Rep. and current Director of the Governor’s Office of Appalachia
Joy Padgett (R-Coshocton). If that happens, this district probably moves
to “Lean GOP” as well.
In the 30th district, if Rep. Charlie Wilson (D-St. Clairsville) wins
the Democrat primary, he’d be the favorite against whomever the
Republicans nominate and keep the district in the “Lean Dem”
category. If former Rep. Jerry Krupinski (D-Steubenville) were to win
the Democrat primary, this race would probably move to “toss-up.”
The wild card next year is the 28th district. For now, however, we list
it as a “Lean Dem” district. See the following story about
Sen. Leigh Herington’s resignation for a more detailed discussion
of the 28th Senate district race.
It’s almost hard to believe that, despite having to defend only
three seats, the prospects for the Democrats reversing their recent
trend are not favorable. At this juncture, the status quo appears the
most likely result.
HERINGTON
RESIGNATION:
MORE THAN MEETS THE EYE?
The recent decision by Sen. Leigh Herington (D-Kent) to resign early
gives indication that the Democrats are at least somewhat concerned
about their ability to hold onto his seat. Rather than let the race
become a true open seat contest featuring no incumbent, they want to
give someone a chance to benefit from being the current officeholder
by appointing him or her to the seat now.
That someone is Kim Zurz, who was chosen yesterday by the Senate Democratic
Caucus to replace Herington.
The reason for Democrat concern is the Republicans have three potentially
strong candidates whose name recognition and popularity – along
with the near-certain fundraising advantage the Republican Senate Campaign
Committee will have over its Democratic counterpart – could offset
the district’s generic Democrat tendencies. The three are former
Reps. Ann Womer Benjamin (R-Aurora) and Twyla Roman (R-Akron) and current
Rep. Mary Taylor (R-Green).
The 28th district includes all of Portage County, just over half of
the City of Akron, and most of southern Summit County. Democrats currently
hold two of the three House districts that comprise the Senate district.
Generally speaking, the 28th is a pretty good Democrat district under
most circumstances. However, the district could emerge as the site of
next year’s most competitive Senate race.
Zurz was chosen over two other applicants, Portage County Commissioner
Chuck Keiper (D-Kent) and former Rep. Tom Seese (D-Akron). She is serving
her third term as a member of the Summit County Council, and virtually
all of the council district she represents falls in the 28th Senate
district. She is also the president of Eckard-Baldwin Funeral Home,
a business owned by her family, and was an unsuccessful candidate for
mayor of Green in 1999.
Herington, who intends to run next year for a seat on the Portage County
Common Pleas Court, will officially leave office on Sept. 17.
JERSE TO CHALLENGE LATOURETTE
With term limits forcing a close to his career in the Ohio House, Rep.
Ed Jerse (D-Euclid) announced recently that he will run for Congress
next year against incumbent U.S. Rep. Steve LaTourette (R-Madison).
Jerse, who has a 79% cumulative pro-business voting record during his
time in the House, currently doesn’t reside in the 14th Congressional
district but said he plans to move into it. The 14th district includes
all of Ashtabula, Geauga, and Lake Counties and portions of Cuyahoga,
Portage, Summit, and Trumbull Counties.
LaTourette will be the heavy favorite in the race, having won re-election
to a fifth term last year with 72% of the vote. His last even moderately
difficult campaign was in 1998.
Perhaps Jerse is just attempting to boost his name recognition and better
position himself in the event LaTourette, who initially said he only
intended to serve four terms in Congress, decides not to run again in
2006.
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