Ohio Chamber of Commerce - Governmental Affairs

CLANCY LATEST HOUSE MEMBER SEEKING MOVE TO SENATE
In recent issues, we’ve examined the numerous contested Senate primaries brewing in districts where the incumbent is prevented by term limits from running for re-election next year. In all, there are seven term-limited Senators, and so far we’ve looked at primary battles in four of these seven districts.

Finally, in at least one district, it looks as if we’ll have an uncontested primary. Rep. Patty Clancy (R-Cincinnati) announced late last month that she’ll run to succeed Sen. Lou Blessing (R-Cincinnati) in the 8th Senate district. Clancy cannot run for re-election to her House seat because of term limits.

While Rep. Bill Seitz (R-Cincinnati), who is not facing term limits next year, has expressed interest in running for this Senate seat in the past, a Seitz Senate candidacy next year appears unlikely at this point.

Given the overwhelmingly Republican disposition of the 8th district – on paper, it is the second most Republican Senate district in the state – Clancy’s ascension to the Senate appears a near certainty.

2002 CORPORATE PAC GIVING, PART III
In the last two issues of The Political Edge, we reviewed some of the results of our comprehensive study of corporate PAC giving in 2002. First we showed who the 50 largest corporate PAC contributors during 2002 were, and then we published the list of the ten PACs who gave the largest percentage of their money to the Ohio Chamber’s “Chamber Choice” candidates.

The goal of this second list was to determine which business PACs were most effective at directing their political resources to candidates who could make a difference for the entire business community.

Another factor we looked at was which PACs were not afraid to invest their dollars in candidates running in the year’s most competitive races, as opposed to those who shied away from these riskier campaigns in favor of safer choices.

Below is a list of the ten corporate PACs who gave the largest percentage of their money to candidates running in what turned out to be the closest ten House and five Senate elections in 2002, as a percentage of the total dollars each gave to all candidates for the Ohio General Assembly. Only corporate PACs that gave at least $1,000 total to candidates in these races were compared.

The closest House contests of 2002 were: HD 85 (John Schlichter v. Joe Sulzer), HD 25 (Dave Dobos v. Dan Stewart), HD 64 (Randy Law v. Dan Sferra), HD 18 (Sue Adams v. Tom Patton), HD 43 (Mike Grimm v. Mary Taylor), HD 81 (Jim Melle v. Jeff Wagner), HD 21 (Linda Reidelbach v. Lori Tyack), HD 68 (Kathleen Chandler v. Teri Hauenstein), HD 87 (Fred Deel v. Clyde Evans), and HD 72 (Merle Kearns v. Ron Rhine).

The closest Senate races were: SD 13 (Jeff Armbruster v. Sue Morano), SD 5 (Mike Osgood v. Tom Roberts), SD 27 (Tom Bevan v. Kevin Coughlin), SD 17 (John Carey v. Mike Shoemaker), and SD 3 (David Goodman v. Debra Payne)

THE EARLY LINE ON ’04 HOUSE ELECTIONS
In the last issue of The Political Edge, we presented our early analysis of the 2004 Senate elections and the prospects each party may have for adding to their numbers in that chamber next year. Ultimately, we predicted that the best bet at this point was for no net change to the GOP’s current 22-11 majority.

This time we take a look at the House. Can the Republicans maintain or even increase their huge 62-37 majority, the largest House majority one party has enjoyed since the Democrats controlled with the same margin in 1983-84, and the largest GOP majority since the party held 64 seats in 1969-70? Or, alternately, could Democrats bolster their numbers, something they have done but once in the last six election cycles?

The outcomes of races in just 14 districts are likely to hold the answers to these questions. These are the 14 seats we currently have listed as “Lean Dem,” “Lean GOP,” or “Toss-Up” in the chart that follows below.

The GOP currently holds 12 of these seats to just two for the Democrats, so its exposure is much higher, though the party is not without opportunities to increase its majority. And unlike the Senate, where all but one of the potentially competitive seats are open seat contests, several of the campaigns expected to be among the most competitive in the House involve incumbents.

This is significant because some of these incumbents – in particular, Reps. John Hagan (R-Alliance), Merle Kearns (R-Springfield), Earl Martin (R-Avon Lake), Tom Patton (R-Strongsville), and Jimmy Stewart (R-Athens) – voted in favor of the recent biennial budget and the tax increases it included. Given this, the tax issue will likely dominate these House campaigns – and perhaps many others – next fall. House Minority Leader Chris Redfern (D-Port Clinton) and the House Democrats are probably licking their chops in anticipation of finally being able to credibly go on the offensive against Republicans on taxes.

The only Democrat incumbent not listed in the “Likely Dem” or “Solid Dem” category is freshman Rep. Kathleen Chandler (D-Kent). Her seat is categorized as “Lean Dem” because 1) she is a freshman, 2) her 2002 race was one of the year’s closest, despite her winning with nearly 56% of the vote, and 3) the district was held by a Republican, former Rep. and current Ohio Dept. of Insurance Director Ann Womer Benjamin, for the previous eight years. Nonetheless, Chandler’s still the favorite for re-election, at least until her GOP opponent is identified.

On the Republican side, there are six “Lean GOP” seats, though Rep. Chuck Blasdel (R-East Liverpool) will move to the “Likely GOP” column if the Democrats aren’t able to line up a stronger opponent for him than they did in either 2000 or 2002.

Though both won re-election last year with 57% of the vote, Hagan and Kearns are in the “Lean GOP” category because of the politically competitive nature of their districts and their potential vulnerability on the tax issue. In the 81st district, freshman Rep. Jeff Wagner (R-Sycamore) didn’t vote for the budget and its tax increases – though he did vote earlier to raise the gas tax – but Democrats have pulled off a candidate recruiting coup by convincing long time Sandusky County Auditor Bill Farrell to challenge him.

The other two “Lean GOP” districts, HD 46 in Lucas County and HD 62 in Lake County, are open seat races in districts that generally favor Republicans.

Among the seven “Toss Up” districts, three – HDs 41, 62, and 96 – are open seats in swing districts. HDs 62 and 41, the seats held by Reps. Jamie Callender (R-Willowick) and Bryan Williams (R-Akron), should be among next year’s most competitive, but it’s too early to assess the races because all of the candidates running are not yet known.

HD 96, currently held by Rep. Charlie Wilson (R-St. Clairsville), will move to “Lean GOP” if Sen. Jim Carnes (R-St. Clairsville) elects to run for it, but would probably move to “Lean Dem” if he doesn’t. Carnes is pursuing a gubernatorial appointment, but a House candidacy is his fallback position. Tuscarawas County Auditor Matt Judy is the probable Democrat candidate.
Rep. Mary Taylor (R-Green) is a freshman in a district that favors Democrats, but she won her seat in 2002 with 54% of the vote and has proven herself to be a more than able fundraiser. In addition, she did not vote for the state budget, though, like Wagner, she did vote to raise the gas tax.

There has been speculation that Taylor is considering a run for Summit County Fiscal Officer next year, and she has also been approached about running for Senate against recently appointed Sen. Kim Zurz (D-Green). Should she opt not to run for re-election, this seat would move to “Lean Dem” or possibly even “Likely Dem.”

To some degree, the remaining three incumbents in the “Toss Up” category – Martin, Patton, and Stewart – are all in the same boat: they’re freshmen, they’re Republicans, they voted to raise taxes, they represent politically marginal districts, and the House GOP spent heavily to win their seats in 2002.

The biggest difference between the three is that Martin is an appointed incumbent – a factor that contributes to him being probably the single most vulnerable incumbent in the House. Martin replaced former Rep. Jeff Manning (R-N. Ridgeville) earlier this year.

The House GOP needed to spend nearly half a million dollars to help Manning win a second term in this district last time, and Martin’s chances of winning a full term hinge first and foremost on who the Democrats get to face him. A candidate with good name recognition, ballot experience, and fundraising ability would present a formidable challenge for Martin. If such a candidate can be identified and enticed into running remains to be seen.

For Patton, a challenger who at least has name recognition is rumored: former Rep. Ron “Mickey” Mottl (D-North Royalton). Mottl served almost a full term in the Ohio House in the late 90’s, succeeding his father, who is also a former U.S. Congressman. Again, nearly half a million dollars was spent to help Patton to a narrow win in 2002.

Stewart’s only announced foe so far is Pat Lang (D-Athens), who served a term on the Athens City Council when he was an Ohio University student in the late 1990’s. Stewart benefited in 2002 from running against an opponent, James Pancake, that didn’t have the full support of Democrats in Athens, the key Democratic part of the 92nd House district. Though Lang shouldn’t be considered a top tier challenger, he would likely do better in the City of Athens than did Pancake.

Until the candidate filing deadline on January 2, 2004, it’s difficult to make any reasonable predictions about what the House makeup might be when the 126th Ohio General Assembly convenes in January 2005. But given the number of seats they must defend and their general liability on the tax issue, a net GOP loss of one or two seats is a distinct possibility.

2004 HOUSE OUTLOOK

SOLID GOP
(40)
HD 2
Peterson (R)
HD 3
Carmichael (R)
HD 4
Willamowski (R)
HD 5
Schaffer (R)
HD 16
Kilbane (R)
HD 19
Flowers (R)
HD 20
McGregor (R)
HD 22
Hughes (R)
HD 23
Wolpert (R)
HD 24
G. Smith (R)
HD 28
Raussen (R)
HD 29
Clancy (R) *
HD 30
Seitz (R)
HD 34
Brinkman (R)
HD 35
Schneider (R)
HD 36
Setzer (R)
HD 37
Husted (R)
HD 38
White (R)
HD 51
Oelslager (R)
HD 53
Webster (R)
HD 54
Jolivette (R) ***
HD 55
Cates (R) *
HD 66
Schmidt (R) ***
HD 67
Raga (R)
HD 69
Calvert (R)
HD 70
DeWine (R)
HD 71
D. Evans (R)
HD 74
Buehrer (R)
HD 75
Hoops (R)
HD 76
Gilb (R)
HD 77
Faber (R)
HD 79
Fessler (R)
HD 82
Reinhard (R)
HD 83
Core (R)
HD 84
Widener (R)
HD 86
Daniels (R)
HD 88
Niehaus (R) ***
HD 90
Collier (R)
HD 97
Gibbs (R)
HD 98
Grendell (R)

LIKELY GOP
(10)
HD 6
Latta (R)
HD 17
Trakas (R)
HD 21
Reidelbach (R)
HD 42
Widowfield (R)
HD 58
Walcher (R)
HD 85
Schlichter (R)
HD 87
C. Evans (R)
HD 91
Householder (R) *
HD 93
Hollister (R)
HD 94
Aslanides (R)

LEAN GOP
(6)
HD 1
Blasdel (R)
HD 46
Olman (R) *
HD 50
Hagan (R)
HD 63
Young (R) *
HD 72
Kearns (R)
HD 81
Wagner (R)

TOSS UP
(7)
HD 18
T. Patton (R)
HD 41
Williams (R) *
HD 43
Taylor (R)
HD 57
Martin (R) **
HD 62
Callender (R) *
HD 92
J. Stewart (R)
HD 96
Wilson (D) *

LEAN DEM
(1)
HD 68
Chandler (D)

LIKELY DEM
(7)
HD 15
DePiero (D)
HD 25
D. Stewart (D)
HD 61
Boccieri (D)
HD 64
Sferra (D)
HD 78
Seaver (D)
HD 80
Redfern (D)
HD 89
Book (D)

SOLID DEM
(28)
HD 7
Jerse (D) *
HD 8
Mason (D)
HD 9
Woodard (D)
HD 10
S. Smith (D)
HD 11
Key (D)
HD 12
DeBose (D)
HD 13
Skindell (D)
HD 14
Miller (D)
HD 26
Price (D)
HD 27
Beatty (D)
HD 31
Driehaus (D)
HD 32
Barrett (D)
HD 33
Yates (D)
HD 39
Allen (D)
HD 40
Strahorn (D)
HD 44
Sykes (D)
HD 45
Otterman (D)
HD 47
Ujvagi (D)
HD 48
Brown (D)
HD 49
Perry (D)
HD 52
Cirelli (D)
HD 56
Koziura (D)
HD 59
Carano (D)
HD 60
S. Patton (D)
HD 65
Harwood (D)
HD 73
Hartnett (D)
HD 95
Domenick (D)
HD 99
Distel (D)

MORE BUTLER COUNTY INTRIGUE:
JOLIVETTE OPTS TO TAKE ON FOX
News involving Butler County Republican politics has been a staple of The Political Edge this summer. In June, there was the story of the county GOP’s rejection of a proposed deal that would have seen Rep. Greg Jolivette (R-Hamilton) and Butler County Commissioner Courtney Combs swap seats, with Jolivette becoming commissioner and Combs becoming state representative. Then, in July, came the story of the battle between Combs and Rep. Gary Cates (R-West Chester) for the GOP nomination in the 4th Senate district.

Now, Jolivette has announced that, rather than run for what would be a final term in the House, he would challenge a sitting incumbent commissioner, former state Rep. Mike Fox (R-Hamilton), in the GOP primary next March.

Initially, speculation was that Jolivette’s decision was made in part to open up his House seat for Combs, thus getting Combs out of the race against Cates – a primary that could be expensive as well as divisive for the party.

Thus, while Jolivette was taking a political risk by running against an incumbent, he would have a safety blanket should he not be successful: he could be appointed to Combs’ commissioner seat in 2005 should Combs win election to the House – a near certainty.
Sounds like a win for everybody (except Fox), right?

Well, maybe not. Combs has given no indication that he’s going to get out of the Senate primary against Cates. In fact, two other Republicans are already pursuing the GOP nomination for Jolivette’s House seat.

Ron D’Epifanio, vice mayor of Fairfield, and Joe Statzer, director of the Butler County prosecutor’s office and the former executive director of the Butler County GOP, both announced recently their intention to run to succeed Jolivette.

We’ll keep you posted on the ongoing saga that is Butler County Republican politics.

SOMEONE IS STAYING PUT
Nine House members are term limited, at least two not facing term limits are running for the Ohio Senate, Jolivette is running for county commissioner, and several other House members are still considering runs for the Senate or some other office. This in addition to two non-term limited incumbents running for mayor this November.

The question appears to be not, “who’s going,” but rather, “who’s staying?”
At least one member who considered going is staying after all. Last week Rep. Mike Gilb (R-Findlay) confirmed that he would run for re-election to the House. Gilb had contemplated running for a vacancy on the Third District Court of Appeals, but opted against such a run.

AT LEAST HE CAN’T “LEGISLATE” IT
Former Ohio Supreme Court Justice Andy Douglas, who was a member of the court’s activist majority when it found Ohio’s system of funding public education to be unconstitutional in the series of DeRolph decisions, is now encouraging teachers and educators to focus on the legislative process instead of the legal process in order to change the school funding system.

In a recent speech before the Ohio Coalition for Equity & Adequacy of School Funding, Douglas advised that, because the new court majority “has a different philosophy” on school funding, they should form local coalitions to identify and elect General Assembly candidates who are committed to complying with the dictates of the last and most recent DeRolph decision.

Using the legislative process to settle a public policy question? What a novel concept. Too bad Douglas, who was barred from running for re-election to the state’s highest court in 2002 because of his age, didn’t think to defer to the legislature while he was on the bench.

NOW YOU CAN JOIN A UNION, TOO
Earlier this month, AFL-CIO President John Sweeney announced the formation of a new union called “Working America.” According to Sweeney, “There are millions of working people who would like to be part of the AFL-CIO’s efforts for social justice and who want a voice to speak out and work to change the direction of this country.”

The “Working America” union will be affiliated with the AFL-CIO and will reach out to workers who are not members of unions through their workplaces. The union plans to recruit for “Working America” throughout the United States, at least in part by going door-to-door.
Currently, just over ten percent of the current U.S. workforce belongs to a union.