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IS
A “NO” VOTE ON BALLOT ISSUES THE DEFAULT POSITION?
You’ve probably heard this assertion before: that, all else being
equal, Ohio voters are more likely to vote “No” on a state
issue than “Yes.” But is this assertion true?
Since 1912 (when the initiative petition method of amending the state
constitution was adopted), Ohioans have had the opportunity to vote
on 200 proposed constitutional amendments. If the assertion were true,
we would expect to find that a significant majority of these proposals
were rejected by voters. That is not the case: 109 passed, while 91
failed. Overall, almost 55% of all proposed constitutional amendments
have passed.
However, when one contrasts the results of amendments proposed by a
joint resolution of the General Assembly with those proposed by initiative
petition, the numbers tell a different story. Of the 200 proposed constitutional
amendments, 142 were brought by the General Assembly and 58 by citizens
via initiative petition. Two-thirds of those brought by the General
Assembly passed. But only about one-in-four of the ones brought by initiative
petition were successful.
So, is the assertion true? Clearly, that depends. What is true, though,
is that, based on historical precedent, the odds are better that Issue
1 – on the ballot following passage of a joint resolution by the
General Assembly – passes than Issues 2-5, which were brought by
initiative petition.
What these numbers reveal is that voters are pretty smart. Constitutional
amendments proposed by the General Assembly need to get support from
three-fifths of the members of both the House and the Senate before
they can go on the ballot. Getting three-fifths of the members of the
General Assembly typically requires some level of bi-partisan support,
thus meaning that the idea will appeal across party lines when it goes
before the voters. In addition, many of the amendments proposed by the
General Assembly concern more routine matters of government, such as
bond issues, that don’t generate significant opposition and aren’t
issues that prompt strong, emotional reactions.
Amendments proposed by initiative petition, however, are frequently
just the opposite. Many originate with ideas popular among the most
ideological elements of the electorate. They are ideas that appeal strongly
to their proponents, horrify their detractors, and can make the middle-of-the
road voters uncomfortable – not the ideal roadmap for success.
KEARNS’
DEPARTURE PUTS ANOTHER SEAT IN PLAY IN ‘06
Veteran lawmaker Merle Kearns (R-Springfield), who served in the House
since 2001 and also spent 10 years in the Ohio Senate, resigned from
the House in late August to become Director of the Ohio Department of
Aging for the Taft Administration. Last week, the House Republicans
chose Springfield businessman Ross McGregor to replace her.
The 72nd district includes the cities of Springfield and New Carlisle,
the villages of Donnelsville and Enon, and all or parts of four townships
in southwestern Clark County. Springfield alone makes up about 60 percent
of the district. The district is a true swing district, with the partisan
index hovering right near 50 percent.
Kearns defeated fellow Rep. Ron Rhine (D-Springfield) in 2002 after
both incumbents ended up in the same district following 2001’s
post-census redistricting. She won with 57% of the vote and faced only
token opposition in winning a third term last year with 60% of the vote.
McGregor is unlikely to have it so easy, however. As an appointed incumbent
in a swing district, he’d start out with a bullseye on his back
under the best of circumstances – and with the recent problems
plaguing the GOP, ’06 is shaping up to be far from the best of
circumstances for GOP candidates.
To hold the seat, McGregor will have to work tirelessly introducing
himself to voters. He’s run for elected office just once previously,
losing a challenge to popular incumbent Clark County Commissioner Roger
Tackett in 2002. McGregor captured 44% of the vote in that race against
Tackett.
McGregor has a strong private sector business background. He is the
manager of business projects at Pentaflex, a Springfield company founded
by his father that has over 100 employees and manufactures metal stampings,
weldments and assemblies. He’s also been involved in numerous economic
development projects, including serving on the Board of the Dayton Development
Coalition and as chairman of the Business and Expansion Committee of
the Center City in Springfield.
Potential Democrat challengers include Rhine and current Springfield
Mayor Warren Copeland. Copeland, professor of religion and Director
of Urban Studies at Wittenberg University in Springfield, served on
the Springfield City Commission for 15 years before being elected mayor
in 2003.
If Kearns had chosen to run for what would have been her fourth and
final term in the House, this seat would be in the “safe”
category for the GOP next year. However, her exit makes the seat a toss-up
and creates another district in which both parties will need to invest
significant dollars in the 2006 campaign – likely even more than
the combined $276,000 spent in the ’02 Kearns v. Rhine race.
STATE
ISSUE 3 – THE END OF FEDERAL PACS IN OHIO
The Ohio Chamber of Commerce has come out strongly against State Issue
3 on this year’s November ballot. The issue, a proposed constitutional
amendment dealing with campaign finance, is a blatant attempt by organized
labor to create a political playing field tilted decidedly in favor
of labor unions and against Ohio’s employers.
While there are numerous problems with this proposal, one issue that
has gotten little attention is of significant interest to many corporations
and associations that make their contributions to state candidates through
their “federal, state, and local” PACs, or FSLs.
Issue 3 would outlaw them entirely. Section 5(C)(15) of the proposed
constitutional amendment reads, “No committee inside or outside
of this state that is registered with the federal government as a political
committee for purposes of federal election activity shall, directly
or indirectly, make a contribution or independent expenditure in connection
with any election for public office in this state or a contribution
to a political party in this state.”
So, if you operate an FSL currently and wish to continue to participate
in Ohio elections, you’ll be forced to create and administer a
separate state PAC. You’ll also have to maintain your federal PAC
in order to participate in federal elections. The result: two PACs,
two bank accounts, two sets of requirements, two reporting mechanisms,
two fundraising approaches and one big headache.
To find out more about Issue 3, read this
article from our most recent issue of Ohio Matters, or visit our
www.OhioBusinessVotes.org
website.
SEAVER
DECIDES AGAINST SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Rep. Derrick Seaver (R-Minster), who became the youngest state legislator
in Ohio history when he was elected to the Ohio House in 2000 as an
18-year old, has decided not to run for a fourth and final term in 2006.
Instead, he intends to concentrate on completing his undergraduate education
and then attend law school.
Seaver was a Democrat when he defeated Republican Dave Shiffer by just
242 votes in a solid Republican district. He switched parties and became
a Republican following last year’s election. During his five years
in the House, he has compiled a 94% pro-business voting record.
One Republican, Wes Farno of Minster, has already declared his candidacy.
Farno was the campaign manager for former U.S. Rep. Bob McEwen’s
campaign earlier this year to win the open 2nd congressional district
seat.
Other candidates said to be considering the race include Champaign County
Prosecutor Nick Selvaggio, a Republican, and Shelby County Commissioner
Dale DeLoye, a Democrat. Given the makeup of the district – the
GOP index exceeds 60% – Republicans feel confident that they can
hold the seat. The 78th district includes all of Champaign and Shelby
Counties and about half of Auglaize County.
BATCHELDER
PREPARES COMEBACK BID
Former Rep. Bill Batchelder (R-Medina), who served in the Ohio House
from 1968 through 1998, recently resigned his seat as a judge on the
9th District Court of Appeals in anticipation of running for an open
Ohio House seat next year. The man who succeeded Batchelder in the House,
current Rep. Chuck Calvert (R-Medina), faces term-limits next year and
can’t run for re-election.
Batchelder didn’t seek re-election to the House in 1998, but instead
ran for and was elected a Medina County Common Pleas Court judge. He
was subsequently appointed by Gov. Bob Taft to fill a vacancy on the
Court of Appeals in 1999, and won a full term on the appeals court in
2000 by capturing 56% of the vote. In our most recent P.a.C.E.
Business Evaluation of the 9th District Court of Appeals, Batchelder
compiled an 86% pro-business score.
During his time in the House, Batchelder compiled a 91% pro-business
voting record. He was speaker pro tem during his last two terms, and
it is believed that an ambition to become the next Speaker of the House
– current Speaker Jon Husted is term-limited in 2008 – is
part of Batchelder’s motivation to again serve in the General Assembly.
However, first things first – Batchelder may face Rep. Calvert’s
wife, Sandy Calvert, in the GOP primary. She announced early in 2005
her intention to succeed her husband in the House. And though the district
has around a 56% Republican index, Democrat challenger Tom Betti held
Calvert to a 55%-45% victory in 2004, and Betti is said to be considering
another run for the Democrats in 2006.
Gov. Taft will fill the vacancy created by Batchelder’s resignation
on the 9th District Court of Appeals. Whomever the Governor selects
will run for a full term on the bench next year. The 9th district includes
Lorain, Medina, Summit, and Wayne Counties.
RON
TAKES TO AIRWAVES
Though multi-million dollar campaigns in support of Issue 1 and both
for and against Issues 2-5, are anticipated, the first shot across a
TV screen was fired by Reform Ohio Now (RON). Issues 2-5 are a package
of four constitutional amendments put forth by RON.
The initial TV spot includes favorable quotes from two Ohio newspapers
and features…a goat. That’s right. In response to a quote
from Gov. Taft questioning the need for the RON reforms, the goat is
shown bleating, “Really?” The 30-second ad began airing in
the Toledo and Dayton markets towards the end of September.
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