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WHERE
IS ALL THE PERSONAL INJURY LAWYER MONEY?
That’s the big question being asked right now.
For years, contributions from personal injury lawyers dominated the
campaign finance reports of activist judges running for the Ohio Supreme
Court. In recent elections they provided upwards of 70 percent of all
the funds raised by candidates like Tim Black, Janet Burnside, Alice
Resnick and others. In addition, Citizens for an Independent Court,
a PAC funded by trial lawyers and labor unions, spent well over $1 million
on behalf of Supreme Court candidates in both 2000 and 2002.
While they continue to provide the bulk of the funding this year for
Supreme Court candidates Ellen Connally, Nancy Fuerst, and William O’Neill,
the total dollars are, in comparison to recent years, paltry. And none
of these candidates have raised enough money to be competitive financially
with their respective opponents. The chart below shows the money each
of the six Ohio Supreme Court candidates running in contested races
have collected to date from the plaintiff’s bar:
In
addition, Richard Mason, executive director of the Ohio Academy of Trial
Lawyers, recently told the Cincinnati Enquirer that Citizens for an
Independent Court would not be utilized this year and that OATL members
were being encouraged to give directly to the Democrat Supreme Court
candidates.
Neither the Connally campaign nor the O’Neill campaign has enough
money to introduce and sell their candidates to the voters, and without
the benefit of an independent effort designed to aid them, it’s
difficult to see how they can win.
Which begs the question, where has the personal injury lawyer money
gone, and why have they abandoned the Court?
Some believe that, with one of their own – U.S. Senator and vice
presidential candidate John Edwards – on the national ticket, personal
injury lawyer dollars are going instead to the Kerry campaign. In fact,
reports are that, nationally, members of the trial bar have given $123
million to Kerry-Edwards.
It’s also possible that the OATL and its members, recognizing the
necessity of winning two of the three contested Ohio Supreme Court contests
in order to return philosophical control of the Court to an activist
majority, simply concluded their chances of doing so weren’t realistic
even with a major financial investment.
Or, perhaps, they’ve shifted strategy politically, and we’ll
still be hearing from them in some fashion over the course of the next
two weeks.
OUTCOME
OF PRESIDENTIAL CONTEST IN OHIO
WILL TURN ON TURNOUT
The voter registration deadline in Ohio has come and gone, and estimates
are that at least 600,000 new voters have been added to the rolls this
year alone. That’s an increase of roughly eight percent and brings
the total number of registered Ohioans to more than 7.6 million.
The largest numbers of new registrants were, not surprisingly, in the
state’s largest counties. Both Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties reported
more than 90,000 new registrations, while Hamilton County had 64,000
and Montgomery County about 25,000.
What’s known is that the numbers of new registrants is an all-time
record in Ohio. But it’s what’s not known that is more significant:
what are the partisan leanings, if any, of these new voters and will
they actually show up and vote on Election Day?
Voters in Ohio declare their party affiliation only by voting in a partisan
primary, but a guess can be made that the new registrations favor Democrats
– though by how much is unclear. A recent Columbus Dispatch
review of voter registrations found that nearly 60% of the new voters
in Franklin County live in precincts that were carried by Democratic
nominee Al Gore in 2000.
Many Democrats believe that this influx of newly registered voters is
their trump card in erasing Pres. George W. Bush’s 3.6% victory
in Ohio in 2000. Their logic: if 60% of the 600,000 new voters statewide
favor Sen. John Kerry and only 40% Pres. Bush, that results in a net
gain to Sen. Kerry of around 120,000 votes. Pres. Bush only won Ohio
four years ago by 165,000 votes. So, if Sen. Kerry can perform just
marginally better than did Gore among the rest of the electorate –
losing by just 2.6% instead of 3.6%, for example – he’d carry
the Buckeye State on the strength of the new voters.
The real question, then, is whether or not these new registrants will
vote. The election will almost certainly turn on turnout. With the three
presidential debates also now complete, both presidential campaigns
have turned their full attention to their Get Out The Vote (GOTV) programs.
Both parties have comprehensive programs to increase turnout among their
partisans by making door-to-door visits, encouraging absentee voting,
making phone calls, and getting supporters to the polls, both in the
days leading up to Nov. 2 and on Election Day.
Given the intense interest in this year’s presidential contest,
it’s difficult to make any assumptions about what the makeup of
the electorate will look like on Election Day or what the final turnout
percentage will be. However, you only need to look back at the January
22, 2004 issue of The Political Edge to see a recent example
of how risky it is for a campaign to pin its hopes on new voters. (Click
here for a link to this issue.)
In our story entitled, “The Perils of Relying Too Much on First
Time Voters,” we wrote how Howard Dean’s presidential campaign
was disappointed in their get-out-the-vote mechanism and believed their
slide in the polls “would be offset by their ability to deliver
first-time voters to participate in the Iowa caucuses” – which
didn’t happen. We also noted that the Dean campaign wasn’t
the first campaign to get burned by overly optimistic expectations for
support from newly registered voters.
While the Kerry campaign is by no means relying solely on first-time
voters to win Ohio, only time – just two weeks, in fact –
will tell if the campaign’s expectations were nonetheless too high.
The turnout battle being waged by the presidential campaigns will also
have a huge impact on the races for the Ohio Supreme Court. With recent
polls done for news organizations showing that a majority of Ohioans
still don’t know any of the six candidates running for contested
seats on the Court, whichever presidential campaign does a better job
of delivering its voters to the polls will also likely provide a boost
to his party’s judicial candidates.
THE
FIELD NARROWS, BUT THE PLOTS THICKEN
The focus on the presidential campaign is overwhelming virtually every
other race on the ballot in Ohio. This is especially concerning for
the business community given the critical importance of the Ohio Supreme
Court contests. It’s also making campaigns for the Ohio General
Assembly mere afterthoughts. In fact, it has been unusually quiet on
the legislative campaign front.
Nonetheless, because so many of you have called us recently looking
for information on what’s going on around the state with respect
to General Assembly contests, here’s a quick rundown of the races
we believe are still in play:
SENATE
In play:
Senate District 20 – This was expected to be the year’s only
close Senate race and it appears nothing has changed. Campaign commercials
for Sen. Joy Padgett (R-Coshocton), buoyed by a flush Senate Republican
Campaign Committee, have been running since early September. Terry Anderson
(D-Athens) has been doing his best to link Padgett to Gov. Bob Taft
– who is not very popular right now in southeastern Ohio –
but isn’t able to compete financially.
Don’t forget about:
Senate District 10 – Sen. Steve Austria (R-Beavercreek) vs. Charlie
Hart (D-Springfield)
Senate District 18 – Rep. Tim Grendell (R-Chesterland) vs. John
Hawkins (D-Mentor-on-the-Lake)
Senate District 24 – Sen. Bob Spada (R-N. Royalton) vs. Robert
Matius (D-Westlake)
HOUSE
In play:
House District 25 – Can Andy Bowers (R-Columbus) do what Dave Dobos
wasn’t able to do two years ago – beat Rep. Dan Stewart (D-Columbus)
in a Democrat-leaning district? House Republicans appear to think so,
because they’ve made a significant Columbus TV buy for Bowers.
Stewart will again have to rely on late help from his allies in the
labor movement to hold onto this seat.
House District 41 – Former Rep. Bryan Williams is gone, but Brian
Williams (D-Akron) may be coming. Appointed incumbent Rep. Marilyn Slaby
(R-Akron) also has a surname familiar to the district’s voters,
but a strong effort by Williams, the former superintendent of Akron
Public Schools, has catapulted this seat to the top of the Democrats’
target list.
House District 57 – Rep. Earl Martin (R-Avon Lake) was appointed
to the House last year and has been in the Democrats’ crosshairs
ever since. Though he seems to be positioned to win a full term, recent
newspaper editorial endorsements of his opponent, former two-term North
Ridgeville Mayor Deanna Hill, show she’s not out of it yet.
House District 58 – With a 58%-42% win in an open seat race two
years ago in a district with a 54% Republican index, Rep. Kathy Walcher
(R-Norwalk) should have been fairly safe. However, she’s anything
but safe at the moment, as well-financed challenger Matt Barrett (D-Amherst),
a personal injury lawyer, has made a real race out of it.
House District 62 – Democrats felt from the beginning this was
their best chance to win a GOP-held seat. Their candidate, Lorraine
Fende (D-Willowick), the five-term mayor of Willowick, had name recognition,
significant ballot experience, and a track record to run on. But her
opponent, Chris Galloway (R-Concord), has been tenacious, catching the
Democrats by surprise and making sure House Republicans make this race
a priority.
House District 91 – It appeared that, behind the scenes, some Statehouse
Republicans didn’t want former Rep. Ron Hood (R-Ashville) to win
the four-way GOP primary this past March. Now, House Democrats are calling
their bluff. Reports are that Democrats have made a large Columbus TV
buy for their candidate, Dan Dodd (D-New Lexington), and Dodd’s
already been airing spots on cable for a month. The district has a 56%
Republican index, but money is a great equalizer and Hood will probably
need to get on TV, too, in order to keep this seat in the GOP column.
House District 96 – The district, currently held by term-limited
Rep. Charlie Wilson (D-St. Clairsville), is one of the few places where
the House Republicans are on offense. The GOP candidate is Tom Gerber
(R-New Philadelphia), a retired state trooper, who ran unsuccessfully
for mayor of New Philadelphia last year. His opponent is first-time
candidate Allan Sayre (D-Dover). The district is a swing district.
Don’t forget about:
House District 46 – Nancy Patrick Greeley (D-Monclova) vs. Mark
Wagoner (R-Toledo)
House District 63 – Tim Cassell (D-Madison) vs. B.J. Kresnye (R-Mentor)
House District 81 – Bill Farrell (D-Fremont) vs. Rep. Jeff Wagner
(R-Sycamore)
House District 88 – Danny Bubp (R-West Union) vs. Cy Richardson
(D-Bethel)
House District 92 – Pat Lang (D-Albany) vs. Rep. Jimmy Stewart
(R-Athens)
House District 93 – Rep. Nancy Hollister (R-Marietta) vs. Jennifer
Garrison (D-Marietta)
IF
OHIO IS GROUND ZERO, WHAT’S THAT MAKE TOLEDO?
According to a recent analysis done by the political advertising tracking
firm TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis Group, more presidential
TV ads have been broadcast to the Toledo market than to any other TV
market in the nation.
From April through September, more than 14,000 commercials aired on
one of Toledo’s four network stations – an average of nearly
80 ads per day.
While Toledo-area viewers have been bombarded with the most spots, another
Ohio TV market leads the nation in presidential ad spending. For the
same time period, spending on presidential commercials in the much more
expensive Cleveland TV market exceeded $28 million. That’s nearly
$11 million more than was spent in Philadelphia, which was second in
this category.
Overall, more money has been spent on presidential TV ads in Ohio –
$59.7 million – than in any other state.
COAL
INDUSTRY 527 JOINS THE FRAY
When the final numbers are compiled for how much money was spent to
air presidential ads in Ohio, they’ll include money spent by a
new 527 organization with strong ties to Ohio’s coal industry.
The Americans for Coal Jobs Voter Fund, which was created this summer,
began airing two ads in early October characterizing Sen. John Kerry
as an “extreme environmentalist” and depicting his Senate
voting record as one that has cost the coal industry jobs.
The ads ran in the heart of coal country: eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania,
and West Virginia. Mike Carey, President of the Ohio Coal Association,
is executive director of the Americans for Coal Jobs Voter Fund.
ABSENTEE
BALLOT APPLICATION DEADLINE LOOMS
Recently, you should have received in the mail from the Ohio Chamber
an application for an absentee ballot. (You can also download an application
by clicking
here.) We know the demands of work may make it difficult for you
to get to the polls on November 2. However, you can still exercise your
right to vote by voting absentee, and we encourage you to do so.
Applications for absentee ballots must be received by your county board
of elections by noon on October 30 – now less than two weeks away.
Protect your business, protect our economy – VOTE!
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