THE POLITICAL EDGE April 2000 THE EARLY LINE ­ FIFTEEN RACES TO WATCH IN 2000 The primary focus this fall for P.a.C.E. ­ and, hopefully, the entire business community in Ohio ­ will be the Ohio Supreme Court race between incumbent Justice Alice Resnick and challenger Terrence O«Donnell. But we know you«re also counting on P.a.C.E. to provide you with timely and in-depth information about Ohio General Assembly races. To that end, the following is our early list of the ³Top Fifteen Races to Watch in 2000.² Out of this year«s 116 General Assembly races, 48 will have no incumbent on the ballot while 11 others will have only an appointed incumbent. Unlike 1998, when only ten candidates were elected with less than 55 percent of the vote, this unprecedented number of open seats has created what promises to be an unusually competitive environment for legislative races. As we look into our crystal ball, this list represents our best (educated) guess as to which races will be the most competitive in 2000. Inclusion is based on the district«s demographics, the relative strengths and weaknesses of the candidates, and probable targeting by one or more legislative caucuses. Senate District 10 Democrat: Roger Tackett (S. Charleston) Republican: Steve Austria (Beavercreek) The 10th is open because incumbent Sen. Merle Kearns (R-Springfield) is term-limited, and the key to the race will be Clark County. As a first-term state representative, Austria has represented only a small geographical portion of the district, the northwest corner of Greene County. But he has worked hard to establish a presence in Springfield, the largest city in the district and the more urban and blue-collar part of the 10th. Austria, a financial advisor, is expected to do well in his home county and in Madison County, which is reliably Republican. Tackett, however, is a proven vote-getter in Clark County, as he has been elected Clark County commissioner five times. He is a Vietnam war veteran active in veterans activities and has twice been named Ohio«s Outstanding Disabled American Veteran. The difference in this race might be the financial resources of the Senate GOP caucus. Due in part to the caucus« war chest, Austria starts off as the favorite in this lean-Republican district. Senate District 22 Democrat: Elizabeth Kelley (Cleveland) Republican: Ron Amstutz (Wooster) Libertarian: Cheryl Neufer (Lodi) The Democrat in the 22nd district race is attorney Elizabeth Kelley, who is seeking elective office for the third time. She was the unsuccessful Democratic candidate challenger to Congressman Steve LaTourette in 1998 and lost the Democratic primary for the right to face LaTourette in 1996. Unfortunately for her, very little of the 19th congressional district overlaps with the 22nd Senate district. Only a portion of Cuyahoga County is in both districts, so any name recognition she might have gained in her congressional bids will be of little benefit to her in this race. In addition, Kelley will also have to overcome a tendency on the part of Medina and, particularly, Wayne County voters to resist electing a Clevelander to represent them. Amstutz, seeking to move up to the Senate after 20 years in the House, currently represents Wayne County, the most Republican part of the 22nd district. Though Amstutz has a clear advantage right now in this race to succeed term-limited Sen. Grace Drake, the fact that this is a swing district means it bears watching. Senate District 24 Democrat: Ed Boyle (North Olmsted) Republican: Bob Spada (Parma Heights) Natural Law: Richard Leirner (Parma) Spada was appointed early in 1999 to fill the remainder of the term to which current Director of Commerce Gary Suhadolnik was elected. Spada represented a portion of the 24th as a Parma Heights city councilman for seven years. He also has his own financial consulting business. Boyle is a self-employed C.P.A. and the former mayor of North Olmsted. He served two terms as the city«s mayor from 1990-1997, prior to which he served two elected terms as the city«s director of finance. He was defeated in his bid for a third term as mayor in 1997. Boyle also lost two congressional primaries, in 1992 and in 1996. By virtue of the fact that North Olmsted has almost 15,000 more residents than does Parma Heights, Boyle has actually appeared on the ballot before more 24th district voters than has Spada. Though Boyle brings decent name recognition and political experience, the fact that the district leans Republican, Spada is the incumbent, and the Senate GOP caucus has a huge war chest and very few places to spend it, means Spada starts off as the favorite. House District 3 Democrat: John Wargo (Salineville) Republican: Chuck Blasdel (East Liverpool) Incumbent state Rep. Sean Logan (D-Salineville) is term-limited. The district, which comprises all of Columbiana County, leans Democrat. The Democratic candidate is former state Rep. John Wargo. Wargo held the seat from 1971-1982, and was also a county commissioner for three terms. Wargo is well-known in the district, but is much more popular in the townships and rural areas than the larger cities. He has a very uneasy relationship with Logan and with Dennis Johnson, the county Democrat chairman. Wargo was not the party«s choice and, in fact, beat the Democrats« endorsed candidate in the primary. Blasdel, who manages his own financial services firm, has never before held elective office, having run for and lost a county recorder«s race in 1996. He was encouraged to run this time by industrialist and county GOP chairman Dave Johnson. This district represents one of the House GOP«s best opportunities to pick up a seat currently held by a Democrat. They«ll likely devote the necessary resources, making this race a toss-up. House District 5 Democrat: George Distel (Conneaut) Republican: Sandy O«Brien (Rome) Libertarian: Frank Keller (Dorset) Distel is the incumbent in this Ashtabula County district, having been appointed in early 1999 to succeed former House Minority Leader Ross Boggs. Distel was in the middle of his second term as a county commissioner when awarded his House seat. Prior to serving as a county commissioner, he was a Conneaut city councilman for five years. He has been on the ballot five times since 1987. The GOP scored a major recruiting success in the 5th, making this race one to watch despite the district«s strong Democrat composition. Sandy O«Brien is serving her second term as county auditor, one of only a handful of Republican countywide officeholders. She is considered a very aggressive campaigner and should be able to count on significant financial support from the House GOP. House District 32 Democrat: Wayne Coates (Forest Park) Republican: Jim Raussen (Cincinnati) Libertarian: Manny Tepper (Wyoming) Raussen, a senior claims rep for Great American Insurance, was one of three insurgent Republicans to challenge the Hamilton County Republican Party«s endorsed legislative candidates in the March primary. Buoyed by strong support from a collection of pro-family social conservative individuals and groups and important elements of the Cincinnati business community, Raussen defeated the party endorsee, Princeton School Board member Tawana Keels Simons. Coates is a strong challenger in this lean Republican district, which is currently held by term-limited Rep. Dale Van Vyven (R-Sharonville). Coates is the former mayor of Forest Park, the third-largest city in Hamilton County. Van Vyven ­ an 11-term incumbent at the time ­ was held to 58 percent in winning re-election in 1998, indicating the district is not a slam dunk for Republicans. Neither candidate can count on too much assistance from their local parties, as both of them are focused primarily on winning the Hamilton County commissioner«s race. Expect a tight contest. House District 33 Democrat: Steve Driehaus (Cincinnati) Republican: Tony Condia (Cincinnati) Libertarian: Patrick Quealy (Cincinnati) The 33rd is one of the few lean Republican districts in the state currently held by a Democrat, term-limited Rep. Jerry Luebbers (D-Cincinnati). As such, it is one the House GOP would dearly love to win. Doing so, however, appears at this point to be an uphill battle. The district is more blue-collar than the typical suburban Republican district and Driehaus, a United Way manager, has a well-known surname. Furthermore, like the man he hopes to succeed, Driehaus is pro-life ­ a must in this district. Condia is director of government affairs for the Home Builders Association of Greater Cincinnati but has not previously run for office and is not well-known in the 33rd. The support and assistance of his former employer, Congressman Steve Chabot (R-Cincinnati), may not be enough. Although the edge at this point probably belongs to Driehaus, heavy spending on Condia«s behalf by the House GOP caucus could put the 33rd in the GOP column. House District 52 Democrat: Teresa Fedor (Toledo) Republican: Jim Mettler (Holland) Libertarian: William Stephenson (Toledo) Appointed incumbent Mettler, a former public affairs director for Auditor Jim Petro, faces a stiff challenge from teacher Fedor. After former Rep. Sally Perz resigned last summer, the House GOP cast its nets far and wide to identify a successor that would be able to hold onto this lean Republican district. Though the caucus would have preferred a female, Mettler was the strongest candidate to come forward and received the appointment. A lifelong resident of the district, Mettler has long been active in Lucas County GOP politics. He ran unsuccessfully for Toledo city council in 1993, but is very politically savvy and a hard worker. His blue-collar background ­ as a former UPS worker, he«s been a member of the Teamster«s union ­ mirrors that of much of the district. Mettler recently got a lot of attention both in Columbus and Toledo for being the lawmaker who carried Gov. Taft«s $400 billion greenspace and brownfields twin bond issues through the legislature. Much of the Toledo attention was not so favorable ­ the Lucas County Democratic Party aired radio ads in the Toledo area accusing Mettler of sponsoring legislation that would ³let polluters off the hook.² The ads were, of course, designed to help Fedor. Despite some surprise that the Democrats didn«t field a more well-known candidate, Fedor received the party«s endorsement last fall ­ well in advance of the filing deadline. A public school teacher, she has the backing of the Ohio Education Association and is one of a number of OEA-recruited General Assembly candidates. Because the district marginally favors Republicans and because he is the incumbent, Mettler starts with the advantage. House District 56 Democrat: Mike Stevens (Canal Fulton) Republican: John Hagan (Alliance) Libertarian: Ronald Brown (Massillon) Stevens is one of four appointed incumbents on our list, and the most recently appointed of the four. He was appointed in January 2000 to finish Johnnie Maier«s term and subsequently won the nomination for a full term in a contested primary in March. Stevens is the General Manager of Clay's Park Resort in North Lawrence and served as a Lawrence Township trustee from 1991 to 1999. He is a past president of the Canal Fulton Chamber of Commerce. His Republican challenger is John Hagan, self-employed heating and plumbing contractor. He has also been a Marlboro Township trustee since 1990. This is Hagan«s second attempt to win the 56th district seat. He challenged Maier in 1998, garnering only 29 percent in a losing effort. Against an appointed incumbent, however, this race has the potential to be competitive. Geographically, the district includes much of Stark County, encircling Canton on three sides and Massillon on three sides. It leans Democrat and Stevens is the early favorite, but Sen. Scott Oelslager has demonstrated a Republican can win in this portion of Stark County. House District 57 Democrat: John Boccieri (New Middletown) Republican: Ron Hood (Canfield) Hood is one of only two elected incumbents on our top ten list. Due to his fiercely ideological philosophy and the political demographics of the 57th, Hood has narrowly prevailed in each of this previous three elections. The Republican area of the district is Carroll County, and it balances the portion of Mahoning County in the district that is strong Democratic territory, creating a very competitive swing district. Hood is frequently criticized by his opponents for not having a strong enough presence in the district. He has been and will again be a top target of labor unions, due to his outspoken support of right-to-work and other legislation opposed by unions. A tough, close election is expected again in 2000, with the biggest difference from his last two elections being his opponent. Union activist Sam Metheny was Hood«s opponent in both «96 and «98, but was beaten in the Democratic primary this year by Boccieri. Boccieri is a pilot in the Ohio Air National Guard, and though he is a lifelong resident of the Mahoning Valley, he«s only recently made a permanent return following his active duty tour in the Air Force. Prior to his military service, he served as a legislative aide to then-state Reps. Greg DiDonato and Richard Cordray. House District 62 Democrat: Chris Rothgery (Elyria) Republican: Jeff Manning (North Ridgeville) The 62nd is the seat currently held by Rep. John Bender (D-Elyria), another victim of term-limits. This race bears many resemblances to the 1998 13th district Ohio Senate race between Ron Nabakowski and now-Sen. Jeff Armbruster. The 62nd is part of the 13th Senate district, and politically it is a true swing district, taking in the northeastern corner of Lorain County. Both candidates are lifelong residents of the district. The Rothgery surname is well-known in Lorain County and especially well-known in Elyria. One Rothgery is a former Elyria city councilman now serving as the city«s safety director and another serves as Lorain County Clerk of Courts. Candidate Rothgery is an attorney in private practice and has not previously held elective office, but he easily won the Democratic nomination, capturing an impressive 46 percent in a four-way primary. He was also on the ballot once previously, losing the 1992 Democratic primary for the 13th congressional district seat now held by Sherrod Brown. Manning is also a private practice attorney. He was North Ridgeville«s Law Director for ten years, including part of the time during which Armbruster was the city«s mayor. He also was the city«s chief prosecutor for six years. Like the «98 Senate race, this is expected to be one of 2000«s tightest elections. House District 63 Democrat: Natalie Mosher (Huron) Republican: Tom Lendrum (Huron) Libertarian: Gerard Seman (Columbia Station) Natural Law: John Fitch (Wakeman) The king of close election contests, current Rep. Bill Taylor, is hanging it up a term early. However, his departure likely doesn«t signal the end of close elections in the 63rd district. Mosher, who lost to Taylor by only 160 votes in 1998, is again the Democrat nominee. She is a former Erie County commissioner, and she basically hasn«t stopped running for this seat since losing to Taylor two years ago. Lendrum is the retired president of Norwalk Concrete Industries, a family-owned and operated business located in Norwalk. Though never previously a candidate for elective office, he is well-known in the Norwalk area and has been actively involved in the Norwalk Chamber of Commerce. The 63rd is very much a swing district, and this seat will be one of the Democrats« top takeover opportunities in 2000. House District 69 Democrat: Valerie Federico (Mentor) Republican: Ron Young (Painesville) Libertarian: Sarah Tetzloff (Mentor) Young, like Hood, is a perennial target of Ohio«s labor unions. He was the sponsor of this session«s HB 101, which prohibited public authorities from stipulating that contractors must use only union laborers on a public works project. In the 1998 campaign, unions frequently demonstrated against Young, and his involvement with HB 101 ensures he«ll endure the same in 2000. He won his previous two races with 54 percent and 56 percent, despite getting little help from Columbus Republicans. That isolation ­ which stems from his having beaten an incumbent Republican to initially win his seat ­ may end this year, however, with the changing of the guard of House GOP leadership. Young«s 2000 opponent is Federico, another teacher recruited by the Democrats to be a House candidate this year. She currently serves as an elected member of the Mentor Exempted Village board of education. Young«s track record of winning fairly comfortably on his own despite heavy union opposition, coupled with the fact that this eastern Lake County district leans Republican, makes him the favorite to win a third term. House District 73 Democrat: Ron Rhine (Springfield) Republican: Roger Evans (Springfield) Evans was the House GOP«s top priority in 1998, and he almost toppled veteran lawmaker David Hartley (D-Springfield), losing by less than 500 votes. The former Springfield police chief is back again, this time with a different opponent, as Hartley is term-limited. It is expected that his candidacy will again draw strong support from Columbus Republicans. Rhine is a Democrat in the Hartley mold. He will get strong support from Ohio«s labor unions, as he is a retired UAW official. Rhine was the UAW«s international rep in 1995 when he helped workers organize a union at the A-Mold Corporation in Mason, Ohio. In this city of Springfield district, an outcome as close as 1998«s is anticipated. House District 79 Democrat: Bill Hartnett (Mansfield) Republican: Ed Olson (Mansfield) The 79th is a swing district the House GOP would very much like to have its column. Republicans were never able to beat former Rep. Frank Sawyer, and came up short against Hartnett in 1998. Hartnett won by a margin much wider than expected in capturing the seat in 1998. He is well-known and well-respected in the district, having served for a decade as superintendent of the Mansfield-Madison school district. He is also the former president of the Mansfield-Richland Area Chamber of Commerce. The GOP thinks it has the right candidate in Olson to finally pick off this seat. Olson is a four-term Richland County commissioner. He has been on the ballot in Richland County six times previously, including an unsuccessful attempt to unseat state Sen. Dick Schafrath (R-Mansfield) in the 1994 GOP primary. Hartnett withstood heavy spending by the GOP on behalf of his «98 opponent, Sally DeVito-Houk, and will probably need to do so again in 2000. Nonetheless, he opens as a slight favorite.